When Should a Model Change Its Mind? An Energy-Based Theory and Regularizer for Concept Drift in Electrocardiogram (ECG) Signals

arXiv:2602.22294v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Models operating on dynamic physiologic signals must distinguish benign, label-preserving variability from true concept change. Existing concept-drift frameworks are largely distributional and provide no principled guidance on how much a model’s internal representation may move when the underlying signal undergoes physiologically plausible fluctuations in energy. As a result, deep models often misinterpret harmless changes in amplitude, rate, or morphology as concept drift, yielding unstable predictions, particularly in multimodal fusion settings.
This study introduces Physiologic Energy Conservation Theory (PECT), an energy-based framework for concept stability in dynamic signals. PECT posits that under virtual drift, normalized latent displacement should scale proportionally with normalized signal energy change, while persistent violations of this proportionality indicate real concept drift. We operationalize this principle through Energy-Constrained Representation Learning (ECRL), a lightweight regularizer that penalizes energy-inconsistent latent movement without modifying encoder architectures or adding inference-time cost.
Although PECT is formulated for dynamic signals in general, we instantiate and evaluate it on multimodal ECG across seven unimodal and hybrid models. Experiments show that in the strongest trimodal hybrid (1D+2D+Transformer), clean accuracy is largely preserved (96.0% to 94.1%), while perturbed accuracy improves substantially (72.6% to 85.5%) and fused representation drift decreases by over 45%. Similar trends are observed across all architectures, providing empirical evidence that PECT functions as an energy-drift law governing concept stability in continuous physiologic signals.