Variational Approximations for Robust Bayesian Inference via Rho-Posteriors

arXiv:2601.07325v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: The $rho$-posterior framework provides universal Bayesian estimation with explicit contamination rates and optimal convergence guarantees, but has remained computationally difficult due to an optimization over reference distributions that precludes intractable posterior computation. We develop a PAC-Bayesian framework that recovers these theoretical guarantees through temperature-dependent Gibbs posteriors, deriving finite-sample oracle inequalities with explicit rates and introducing tractable variational approximations that inherit the robustness properties of exact $rho$-posteriors. Numerical experiments demonstrate that this approach achieves theoretical contamination rates while remaining computationally feasible, providing the first practical implementation of $rho$-posterior inference with rigorous finite-sample guarantees.