Understanding Partial Reachability in the Internet Core

arXiv:2601.12196v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Routing strives to connect all the Internet, but compete: political pressure threatens routing fragmentation; architectural changes such as private clouds, carrier-grade NAT, and firewalls make connectivity conditional; and commercial disputes create partial reachability for days or years. This paper suggests *persistent, partial reachability is fundamental to the Internet* and an underexplored problem. We first *derive a conceptual definition of the Internet core* based on connectivity, not authority. We identify *peninsulas*: persistent, partial connectivity; and *islands*: when computers are partitioned from the Internet core. Second, we develop algorithms to observe each across the Internet, and apply them to two existing measurement systems: Trinocular, where 6 locations observe 5M networks frequently, and RIPE Atlas, where 13k locations scan the DNS roots frequently. Cross-validation shows our findings are stable over *three years of data*, and consistent with as few as 3 geographically-distributed observers. We validate peninsulas and islands against CAIDA Ark, showing good recall (0.94) and bounding precision between 0.42 and 0.82. Finally, our work has broad practical impact: we show that *peninsulas are more common than Internet outages*. Factoring out peninsulas and islands as noise can *improve existing measurement systems*; their “noise” is $5times$ to $9.7times$ larger than the operational events in RIPE’s DNSmon. We show that most peninsula events are routing transients (45%), but most peninsula-time (90%) is due to a few (7%) long-lived events. Our work helps inform Internet policy and governance, with our neutral definition showing no single country or organization can unilaterally control the Internet core.