Simultaneous analysis of approximate leave-one-out cross-validation and mean-field inference

arXiv:2501.02624v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Approximate Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (ALO-CV) is a method that has been proposed to estimate the generalization error of a regularized estimator in the high-dimensional regime where dimension and sample size are of the same order, the so-called “proportional regime”. A new analysis is developed to derive the consistency of ALO-CV for non-differentiable regularizers under Gaussian covariates and strong convexity. Using a conditioning argument, the difference between the ALO-CV weights and their counterparts in mean-field inference is shown to be small. Combined with upper bounds between the mean-field inference estimate and the leave-one-out quantity, this provides a proof that ALO-CV approximates the leave-one-out quantity up to negligible error terms. Linear models with square loss, robust linear regression and single-index models are explicitly treated.