Prediction of Fault Slip Tendency in CO${_2}$ Storage using Data-space Inversion
arXiv:2601.05431v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Accurately assessing the potential for fault slip is essential in many subsurface operations. Conventional model-based history matching methods, which entail the generation of posterior geomodels calibrated to observed data, can be challenging to apply in coupled flow-geomechanics problems with faults. In this work, we implement a variational autoencoder (VAE)-based data-space inversion (DSI) framework to predict pressure, stress and strain fields, and fault slip tendency, in CO${_2}$ storage projects. The main computations required by the DSI workflow entail the simulation of O(1000) prior geomodels. The posterior distributions for quantities of interest are then inferred directly from prior simulation results and observed data, without the need to generate posterior geomodels. The model used here involves a synthetic 3D system with two faults. Realizations of heterogeneous permeability and porosity fields are generated using geostatistical software, and uncertain geomechanical and fault parameters are sampled for each realization from prior distributions. Coupled flow-geomechanics simulations for these geomodels are conducted using GEOS. A VAE with stacked convolutional long short-term memory layers is trained, using the prior simulation results, to represent pressure, strain, effective normal stress and shear stress fields in terms of latent variables. The VAE parameterization is used with DSI for posterior predictions, with monitoring wells providing observed pressure and strain data. Posterior results for synthetic true models demonstrate that the DSI-VAE framework gives accurate predictions for pressure, strain, and stress fields and for fault slip tendency. The framework is also shown to reduce uncertainty in key geomechanical and fault parameters.
