Online Learning for Uninformed Markov Games: Empirical Nash-Value Regret and Non-Stationarity Adaptation
arXiv:2602.07205v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: We study online learning in two-player uninformed Markov games, where the opponent’s actions and policies are unobserved. In this setting, Tian et al. (2021) show that achieving no-external-regret is impossible without incurring an exponential dependence on the episode length $H$. They then turn to the weaker notion of Nash-value regret and propose a V-learning algorithm with regret $O(K^{2/3})$ after $K$ episodes. However, their algorithm and guarantee do not adapt to the difficulty of the problem: even in the case where the opponent follows a fixed policy and thus $O(sqrt{K})$ external regret is well-known to be achievable, their result is still the worse rate $O(K^{2/3})$ on a weaker metric.
In this work, we fully address both limitations. First, we introduce empirical Nash-value regret, a new regret notion that is strictly stronger than Nash-value regret and naturally reduces to external regret when the opponent follows a fixed policy. Moreover, under this new metric, we propose a parameter-free algorithm that achieves an $O(min {sqrt{K} + (CK)^{1/3},sqrt{LK}})$ regret bound, where $C$ quantifies the variance of the opponent’s policies and $L$ denotes the number of policy switches (both at most $O(K)$). Therefore, our results not only recover the two extremes — $O(sqrt{K})$ external regret when the opponent is fixed and $O(K^{2/3})$ Nash-value regret in the worst case — but also smoothly interpolate between these extremes by automatically adapting to the opponent’s non-stationarity. We achieve so by first providing a new analysis of the epoch-based V-learning algorithm by Mao et al. (2022), establishing an $O(eta C + sqrt{K/eta})$ regret bound, where $eta$ is the epoch incremental factor. Next, we show how to adaptively restart this algorithm with an appropriate $eta$ in response to the potential non-stationarity of the opponent, eventually achieving our final results.
