Decoding Defensive Coverage Responsibilities in American Football Using Factorized Attention Based Transformer Models

arXiv:2603.25901v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Defensive coverage schemes in the National Football League (NFL) represent complex tactical patterns requiring coordinated assignments among defenders who must react dynamically to the offense’s passing concept. This paper presents a factorized attention-based transformer model applied to NFL multi-agent play tracking data to predict individual coverage assignments, receiver-defender matchups, and the targeted defender on every pass play. Unlike previous approaches that focus on post-hoc coverage classification at the team level, our model enables predictive modeling of individual player assignments and matchup dynamics throughout the play. The factorized attention mechanism separates temporal and agent dimensions, allowing independent modeling of player movement patterns and inter-player relationships. Trained on randomly truncated trajectories, the model generates frame-by-frame predictions that capture how defensive responsibilities evolve from pre-snap through pass arrival. Our models achieve approximately 89%+ accuracy for all tasks, with true accuracy potentially higher given annotation ambiguity in the ground truth labels. These outputs also enable novel derivative metrics, including disguise rate and double coverage rate, which enable enhanced storytelling in TV broadcasts as well as provide actionable insights for team strategy development and player evaluation.