Construction of a classification model for dementia among Brazilian adults aged 50 and over

arXiv:2602.16887v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: To build a dementia classification model for middle-aged and elderly Brazilians, implemented in Python, combining variable selection and multivariable analysis, using low-cost variables with modification potential. Observational study with a predictive modeling approach using a cross-sectional design, aimed at estimating the chances of developing dementia, using data from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSI-Brazil), involving 9,412 participants. Dementia was determined based on neuropsychological assessment and informant-based cognitive function. Analyses were performed using Random Forest (RF) and multivariable logistic regression to estimate the risk of dementia in the middle-aged and elderly populations of Brazil. The prevalence of dementia was 9.6%. The highest odds of dementia were observed in illiterate individuals (Odds Ratio (OR) = 7.42), individuals aged 90 years or older (OR = 11.00), low weight (OR = 2.11), low handgrip strength (OR = 2.50), self-reported black skin color (OR = 1.47), physical inactivity (OR = 1.61), self-reported hearing loss (OR = 1.65), and presence of depressive symptoms (OR = 1.72). Higher education (OR=0.44), greater life satisfaction (OR=0.72), and being employed (OR=0.78) were protective factors. The RF model outperformed logistic regression, achieving an area under the ROC curve of 0.776, with a sensitivity of 0.708, a specificity of 0.702, an F1-score of 0.311, a G-means of 0.705, and an accuracy of 0.703. Conclusion: The findings reinforce the multidimensional nature of dementia and the importance of accessible factors for identifying vulnerable individuals. Strengthening public policies focused on promoting brain health can contribute significantly to the efficient allocation of resources in primary care and dementia prevention in Brazil