Causal Direction from Convergence Time: Faster Training in the True Causal Direction

arXiv:2602.22254v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: We introduce Causal Computational Asymmetry (CCA), a principle for causal direction identification based on optimization dynamics in which one neural network is trained to predict $Y$ from $X$ and another to predict $X$ from $Y$, and the direction that converges faster is inferred to be causal. Under the additive noise model $Y = f(X) + varepsilon$ with $varepsilon perp X$ and $f$ nonlinear and injective, we establish a formal asymmetry: in the reverse direction, residuals remain statistically dependent on the input regardless of approximation quality, inducing a strictly higher irreducible loss floor and non-separable gradient noise in the optimization dynamics, so that the reverse model requires strictly more gradient steps in expectation to reach any fixed loss threshold; consequently, the forward (causal) direction converges in fewer expected optimization steps. CCA operates in optimization-time space, distinguishing it from methods such as RESIT, IGCI, and SkewScore that rely on statistical independence or distributional asymmetries, and proper z-scoring of both variables is required for valid comparison of convergence rates. On synthetic benchmarks, CCA achieves 26/30 correct causal identifications across six neural architectures, including 30/30 on sine and exponential data-generating processes. We further embed CCA into a broader framework termed Causal Compression Learning (CCL), which integrates graph structure learning, causal information compression, and policy optimization, with all theoretical guarantees formally proved and empirically validated on synthetic datasets.