AGI, ASI, A*I – Do we have all we need to get there?

Demis: “[to get to AGI] maybe there’s one or two big innovations needed”

Sam: “everything based off what we see today is that it will happen.”

Ilya: “But is the belief really that if you just 100x the scale, everything would be transformed? I don’t think that’s true.”

Dario: “If you just kind of like eyeball the rate at which these capabilities are increasing, it does make you think that we’ll get there by 2026 or 2027.”

Jerry: “is [the transformer architecture] the last thing? I’m pretty sure it isn’t.”

For years leading researchers have been speculating one way or the other as to whether better algorithms are needed to get to AGI, artificial general intelligence (however that might be defined).

Around the time of the release of GPT-4, some were saying they felt something more was needed. Since then, we have had several major new advances, like reasoning models and tool use. If we’d said, “we don’t need anything else” three years ago, where would we be now?

For frankness, I like this from John Schulman: “it’s hard to know what we need.” And for strategy, Demis: “you can think of as 50% of our effort is on scaling, 50% of it is on innovation. My betting is you’re going to need both to get to AGI.”

The post AGI, ASI, A*I – Do we have all we need to get there? first appeared on John D. Cook.