Accelerating Bayesian Optimization for Nonlinear State-Space System Identification with Application to Lithium-Ion Batteries

arXiv:2603.25840v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: This paper studies system identification for nonlinear state-space models, a problem that arises across many fields yet remains challenging in practice. Focusing on maximum likelihood estimation, we employ Bayesian optimization (BayesOpt) to address this problem by leveraging its derivative-free global search capability enabled by surrogate modeling of the likelihood function. Despite these advantages, standard BayesOpt often suffers from slow convergence, high computational cost, and practical difficulty in attaining global optima under limited computational budgets, especially for high-dimensional nonlinear models with many unknown parameters.
To overcome these limitations, we propose an accelerated BayesOpt framework that integrates BayesOpt with the Nelder–Mead method. Heuristics-based, the Nelder–Mead method provides fast local search, thereby assisting BayesOpt when the surrogate model lacks fidelity or when over-exploration occurs in broad parameter spaces. The proposed framework incorporates a principled strategy to coordinate the two methods, effectively combining their complementary strengths. The resulting hybrid approach significantly improves both convergence speed and computational efficiency while maintaining strong global search performance. In addition, we leverage an implicit particle filtering method to enable accurate and efficient likelihood evaluation. We validate the proposed framework on the identification of the BattX model for lithium-ion batteries, which features ten state dimensions, 18 unknown parameters, and strong nonlinearity. Both simulation and experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach as well as its advantages over alternative methods.