A General Framework for Joint Multi-State Models

arXiv:2510.07128v4 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Conventional joint modeling approaches generally characterize the relationship between longitudinal biomarkers and discrete event occurrences within terminal, recurring or competing risk settings, thereby offering a limited representation of complex, multi-state trajectories.
We propose a general multi-state joint modeling framework that unifies longitudinal biomarker dynamics with multi-state time-to-event processes defined on arbitrary directed graphs. The proposed framework also accomodates nonlinear longitudinal submodels and scalable inference via stochastic gradient descent. This formulation encompasses both Markovian and semi-Markovian transition structures, allowing recurrent cycles and terminal absorptions to be naturally represented. The longitudinal and event processes are linked through shared latent structures within nonlinear mixed-effects models, extending classical joint modeling formulations.
We derive the complete likelihood, model selection criteria, and develop scalable inference procedures based on stochastic gradient descent to enable high-dimensional and large-scale applications. In addition, we formulate a dynamic prediction framework that provides individualized state-transition probabilities and personalized risk assessments along complex event trajectories.
Through simulation and application to the PAQUID cohort, we demonstrate accurate parameter recovery and individualized prediction.