PRCD-MAP: Learning How Much to Trust Imperfect Priors in Causal Discovery

arXiv:2605.01669v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: External priors of unknown reliability create a brittle trade-off in causal discovery: blind trust amplifies errors, blind rejection wastes signal. Real priors are also emph{heterogeneously} reliable — physical laws are trustworthy, LLM-suggested edges are speculative — yet existing methods either ignore priors or impose them through globally uniform trust. We propose textbf{PRCD-MAP}, a soft prior-consumption layer that assigns emph{per-edge} trust to an imperfect prior and uses it to modulate a prior-aware $ell_1$ penalty and prior-weighted $ell_2$ regularizer in a MAP objective. Trust is calibrated by empirical Bayes on a Laplace-approximated marginal likelihood and propagated along the prior graph by an MLP, so that data-confirmed neighborhoods boost trust and contradictions suppress it. PRCD-MAP enjoys a population-level safety guarantee: it is $varepsilon$-safe in expectation over the prior-generation distribution, with $varepsilon = O(d^2/T)$ — inheriting the oracle convergence rate. When the prior is uninformative, learned trust provably collapses to its floor and the method recovers a no-prior baseline. Empirically, on real CausalTime data PRCD-MAP exploits informative priors when present ($+0.123$ AUROC on AQI, $+0.043$ on Medical over PCMCI+), auto-attenuates on the anonymous-variable Traffic stress test, and retains a lead at $d{=}300$; against BayesDAG~citep{annadani2023bayesdag} — the closest soft-Bayesian baseline — PRCD-MAP wins on every CausalTime dataset under a matched $W_0$-only protocol. A four-way ablation isolates each component: EB calibration and MLP trust propagation jointly carry the plurality of the gain, with positive sign on every dataset. Extensions to nonlinear (NAM) and cross-sectional settings show the calibrated-trust principle is setting-agnostic.