Central Limit Theorems for Transition Probabilities of Controlled Markov Chains

arXiv:2508.01517v3 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: We develop a central limit theorem (CLT) for a non-parametric estimator of the transition matrices in controlled Markov chains (CMCs) with finite state-action spaces. Our results establish precise conditions on the logging policy under which the estimator is asymptotically normal, and reveal settings in which no CLT can exist. We then build on it to derive CLTs for the value, Q-, and advantage functions of any stationary stochastic policy, including the optimal policy recovered from the estimated model. Goodness-of-fit tests are derived as a corollary, which enable to test whether the logged data is stochastic. These results provide new statistical tools for offline policy evaluation and optimal policy recovery, and enable hypothesis tests for transition probabilities.