Neural Stochastic Differential Equations on Compact State Spaces: Theory, Methods, and Application to Suicide Risk Modeling

arXiv:2508.17090v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) studies enable the collection of high-frequency self-reports of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs) via smartphones. Latent stochastic differential equations (SDE) are a promising model class for EMA data, as it is irregularly sampled, noisy, and partially observed. But SDE-based models suffer from two key limitations. (a) These models often violate domain constraints, undermining scientific validity and clinical trust of the model. (b) Training is numerically unstable without ad-hoc fixes (e.g. oversimplified dynamics) that are ill-suited for high-stakes applications. Here, we develop a novel class of expressive SDEs whose solutions are provably confined to a prescribed compact polyhedral state space, matching the domains of EMA data. (1) We show why chain-rule-based constructions of SDEs on compact domains fail, theoretically and empirically; (2) we derive constraints on drift and diffusion for non-stationary/stationary SDEs so their solutions remain on the desired state space; and (3), we introduce a parameterization that maps arbitrary (neural or expert-given) dynamics into constraint-satisfying SDEs. On several real EMA datasets, including a large suicide-risk study, our parameterization improves inductive bias, training dynamics, and predictive performance over standard latent neural SDE baselines. These contributions pave way for principled, trustworthy continuous-time models of suicide risk and other clinical time series; they also extend the application of SDE-based methods (e.g. diffusion models) to domains with hard state constraints.