Stochastic Discount Factors with Cross-Asset Spillovers

arXiv:2602.20856v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: This paper develops a unified framework that links firm-level predictive signals, cross-asset spillovers, and the stochastic discount factor (SDF). Signals and spillovers are jointly estimated by maximizing the Sharpe ratio, yielding an interpretable SDF that both ranks characteristic relevance and uncovers the direction of predictive influence across assets. Out-of-sample, the SDF consistently outperforms self-predictive and expected-return benchmarks across investment universes and market states. The inferred information network highlights large, low-turnover firms as net transmitters. The framework offers a clear, economically grounded view of the informational architecture underlying cross-sectional return dynamics.