DMCD: Semantic-Statistical Framework for Causal Discovery

arXiv:2602.20333v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: We present DMCD (DataMap Causal Discovery), a two-phase causal discovery framework that integrates LLM-based semantic drafting from variable metadata with statistical validation on observational data. In Phase I, a large language model proposes a sparse draft DAG, serving as a semantically informed prior over the space of possible causal structures. In Phase II, this draft is audited and refined via conditional independence testing, with detected discrepancies guiding targeted edge revisions.
We evaluate our approach on three metadata-rich real-world benchmarks spanning industrial engineering, environmental monitoring, and IT systems analysis. Across these datasets, DMCD achieves competitive or leading performance against diverse causal discovery baselines, with particularly large gains in recall and F1 score. Probing and ablation experiments suggest that these improvements arise from semantic reasoning over metadata rather than memorization of benchmark graphs. Overall, our results demonstrate that combining semantic priors with principled statistical verification yields a high-performing and practically effective approach to causal structure learning.