Closing Africa’s Early Warning Gap: AI Weather Forecasting for Disaster Prevention

arXiv:2602.17726v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: In January 2026, torrential rains killed 200-300 people across Southern Africa, exposing a critical reality: 60% of the continent lacks effective early warning systems due to infrastructure costs. Traditional radar stations exceed USD 1 million each, leaving Africa with an 18x coverage deficit compared to the US and EU. We present a production-grade architecture for deploying NVIDIA Earth-2 AI weather models at USD 1,430-1,730/month for national-scale deployment – enabling coverage at 2,000-4,545x lower cost than radar. The system generates 15-day global atmospheric forecasts, cached in PostgreSQL to enable user queries under 200 milliseconds without real-time inference.
Deployed in South Africa in February 2026, our system demonstrates three technical contributions: (1) a ProcessPoolExecutor-based event loop isolation pattern that resolves aiobotocore session lifecycle conflicts in async Python applications; (2) a database-backed serving architecture where the GPU writes global forecasts directly to PostgreSQL, eliminating HTTP transfer bottlenecks for high-resolution tensors; and (3) an automated coordinate management pattern for multi-step inference across 61 timesteps. Forecasts are delivered via WhatsApp, leveraging 80%+ market penetration. This architecture makes continent-scale early warning systems economically viable, supporting UNDRR findings that such systems reduce disaster death rates by 6x. All architectural details are documented inline for full reproducibility.