arXiv:2603.27320v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Retrospective causal questions ask what would have happened to an observed individual had they received a different treatment. We study the problem of estimating $mu(x,y)=mathbb{E}[Y(1)mid X=x,Y(0)=y]$, the expected counterfactual outcome for an individual with covariates $x$ and observed outcome $y$, and constructing valid prediction intervals under the Neyman-Rubin superpopulation model. This quantity is generally not identified without additional assumptions. To link the observed and unobserved potential outcomes, we work with a cross-world correlation […]

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arXiv:2410.06378v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Covering numbers of (deep) ReLU networks have been used to characterize approximation-theoretic performance, to upper-bound prediction error in nonparametric regression, and to quantify classification capacity. These results rely on covering number upper bounds obtained via explicit constructions of coverings. Lower bounds on covering numbers do not appear to be available in the literature. The present paper fills this gap by deriving tight (up to multiplicative constants) lower and upper bounds on the metric […]

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arXiv:2603.20303v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Flow Matching (FM) has recently emerged as a leading approach for high-fidelity visual generation, offering a robust continuous-time alternative to ordinary differential equation (ODE) based models. However, despite their success, FM models are highly sensitive to dataset biases, which cause severe semantic degradation when generating out-of-distribution or minority-class samples. In this paper, we provide a rigorous mathematical formalization of the “Bias Manifold” within the FM framework. We identify that this performance drop is […]

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Selective conformal prediction can yield substantially tighter uncertainty sets when we can identify calibration examples that are exchangeable with the test example. In interventional settings, such as perturbation experiments in genomics, exchangeability often holds only within subsets of interventions that leave a target variable "unaffected" (e.g., non-descendants of an intervened node in a causal graph). We study the practical regime where this invariance structure is unknown and must be learned from data. Our contributions are: (i) a contamination-robust […]

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While next-token prediction (NTP) has been the standard objective for training language models, it often struggles to capture global structure in reasoning tasks. Multi-token prediction (MTP) has recently emerged as a promising alternative, yet its underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. In this paper, we study how MTP facilitates reasoning, with a focus on planning. Empirically, we show that MTP consistently outperforms NTP on both synthetic graph path-finding tasks and more realistic reasoning benchmarks, such as Countdown and boolean […]

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arXiv:2602.13200v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to model traffic in Ad Hoc network of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and demonstrate a way for adapting communication channel using Artificial Intelligence. The modeling was based on the original model of Ad Hoc network including 20 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. The dependences of packet loss on the packet size for different transmission powers, on the packet size for different frequencies, on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles flight area and on […]

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In conversations about customer data, one question comes up again and again: if both CDPs and MDMs help create a more complete view of the customer, are they basically doing the same thing? It is an understandable question. After all, both technologies are often positioned around customer unification, identity resolution, and creating better visibility across systems. On the surface, they can sound very similar. But while CDPs and MDMs do overlap in some areas, they are not the […]

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arXiv:2603.25840v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper studies system identification for nonlinear state-space models, a problem that arises across many fields yet remains challenging in practice. Focusing on maximum likelihood estimation, we employ Bayesian optimization (BayesOpt) to address this problem by leveraging its derivative-free global search capability enabled by surrogate modeling of the likelihood function. Despite these advantages, standard BayesOpt often suffers from slow convergence, high computational cost, and practical difficulty in attaining global optima under limited computational […]

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arXiv:2601.20983v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Monotone optimisation problems admit specialised global solvers such as the Polyblock Outer Approximation (POA) algorithm, but these methods typically require explicit objective and constraint functions. In many applications, these functions are only available through data, making POA difficult to apply directly. We introduce an algorithm-aware learning approach that integrates learned models into POA by directly predicting its projection primitive via the radial inverse, avoiding the costly bisection procedure used in standard POA. We […]

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