arXiv:2504.13961v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate short-term traffic demand prediction is critical for the operation of traffic systems. Besides point estimation, the confidence interval of the prediction is also of great importance. Many models for traffic operations, such as shared bike rebalancing and taxi dispatching, take into account the uncertainty of future demand and require confidence intervals as the input. However, existing methods for confidence interval modeling rely on strict assumptions, such as unchanging traffic patterns and correct […]

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Large language model (LLM) agents deployed in unknown environments must learn task structure at test time, but current approaches require thousands of interactions to form useful hypotheses. We present Sensi, an LLM agent architecture for the ARC-AGI-3 game-playing challenge that introduces structured test-time learning through three mechanisms: (1) a two-player architecture separating perception from action, (2) a curriculum-based learning system managed by an external state machine, and (3) a database-as-control-plane that makes the agents context window programmatically steerable. […]

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We introduce xplainfi, an R package built on top of the mlr3 ecosystem for global, loss-based feature importance methods for machine learning models. Various feature importance methods exist in R, but significant gaps remain, particularly regarding conditional importance methods and associated statistical inference procedures. The package implements permutation feature importance, conditional feature importance, relative feature importance, leave-one-covariate-out, and generalizations thereof, and both marginal and conditional Shapley additive global importance methods. It provides a modular conditional sampling architecture based […]

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arXiv:2603.22325v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and self-attention are both widely used sequence-mixing layers that maintain an internal memory. However, this memory is constructed using two orthogonal mechanisms: RNNs compress the entire past into a fixed-size state, whereas self-attention’s state stores every past time step growing its state (the KV cache) linearly with the sequence length. This results in orthogonal strengths and weaknesses. Self-attention layers excel at retrieving information in the context but have large […]

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arXiv:2602.17850v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conversational agents increasingly mediate everyday digital interactions, yet the effects of their communication style on user experience and task success remain unclear. Addressing this gap, we describe the results of a between-subject user study where participants interact with one of two versions of a chatbot called NAVI which assists users in an interactive map-based 2D navigation task. The two chatbot versions differ only in communication style: one is friendly and supportive, while the […]

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arXiv:2603.26777v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) delivered the first image of a black hole by capturing the light from its surrounding accretion flow, revealing structure but not dynamics. Simulations of black hole accretion dynamics are essential for interpreting EHT images but costly to generate and impractical for inference. Motivated by this bottleneck, BHCast presents a framework for forecasting black hole plasma dynamics from a single, blurry snapshot, such as those captured by the EHT. […]

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