Temporal Dropout Risk in Learning Analytics: A Harmonized Survival Benchmark Across Dynamic and Early-Window Representations
Student dropout is a persistent concern in Learning Analytics, yet comparative studies frequently evaluate predictive models under heterogeneous protocols, prioritizing discrimination over temporal interpretability and calibration. This study introduces a survival-oriented benchmark for temporal dropout risk modelling using the Open University Learning Analytics Dataset (OULAD). Two harmonized arms are compared: a dynamic weekly arm, with models in person-period representation, and a comparable continuous-time arm, with an expanded roster of families — tree-based survival, parametric, and neural models. The […]