arXiv:2602.13104v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We develop a finite-sample, design-based theory for random forests in which each tree is a randomized conditional predictor acting on fixed covariates and the forest is their Monte Carlo average. An exact variance identity separates Monte Carlo error from a covariance floor that persists under infinite aggregation. The floor arises through two mechanisms: observation reuse, where the same training outcomes receive weight across multiple trees, and partition alignment, where independently generated trees discover […]

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arXiv:2602.09720v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Data streams are rarely static in dynamic environments like Industry 4.0. Instead, they constantly change, making traditional offline models outdated unless they can quickly adjust to the new data. This need can be adequately addressed by continual learning (CL), which allows systems to gradually acquire knowledge without incurring the prohibitive costs of retraining them from scratch. Most research on continual learning focuses on classification problems, while very few studies address regression tasks. We […]

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arXiv:2603.03587v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Method validation and study design in causal inference rely on synthetic data with known counterfactuals. Existing simulators trade off distributional realism, the ability to capture mixed-type and multimodal tabular data, against causal controllability, including explicit control over overlap, unmeasured confounding, and treatment effect heterogeneity. We introduce CausalMix, a variational generative framework that closes this gap by coupling a mixture of Gaussian latent priors with data-type-specific decoders for continuous, binary, and categorical variables. The […]

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Low-level database operators often admit multiple physical implementations ("kernels") that are semantically equivalent but have vastly different performance characteristics depending on the input data distribution. Existing database systems typically rely on static heuristics or worst-case optimal defaults to select these kernels, often missing significant performance opportunities. In this work, we propose CAKE (Counterfactual Adaptive Kernel Execution), a system that learns to select the optimal kernel for each data "morsel" using a microsecond-scale contextual multi-armed bandit. CAKE circumvents the […]

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arXiv:2602.21408v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Gaussian process (GP) surrogates are the default tool for emulating expensive computer experiments, but cubic cost, stationarity assumptions, and Gaussian predictive distributions limit their reach. We propose Generative Bayesian Computation (GBC) via Implicit Quantile Networks (IQNs) as a surrogate framework that targets all three limitations. GBC learns the full conditional quantile function from input–output pairs; at test time, a single forward pass per quantile level produces draws from the predictive distribution. Across fourteen […]

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arXiv:2603.08771v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present Midicoth, a lossless compression system that introduces a micro-diffusion denoising layer for improving probability estimates produced by adaptive statistical models. In compressors such as Prediction by Partial Matching (PPM), probability estimates are smoothed by a prior to handle sparse observations. When contexts have been seen only a few times, this prior dominates the prediction and produces distributions that are significantly flatter than the true source distribution, leading to compression inefficiency. Midicoth […]

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arXiv:2602.07047v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pixel-level feature attributions are an important tool in eXplainable AI for Computer Vision (XCV), providing visual insights into how image features influence model predictions. The Owen formula for hierarchical Shapley values has been widely used to interpret machine learning (ML) models and their learned representations. However, existing hierarchical Shapley approaches do not exploit the multiscale structure of image data, leading to slow convergence and weak alignment with the actual morphological features. Moreover, no […]

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arXiv:2602.18456v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Contemporary benchmarks for agentic artificial intelligence (AI) frequently evaluate safety through isolated task-level accuracy thresholds, implicitly treating autonomous systems as single points of failure. This single-channel paradigm diverges from established principles in safety-critical engineering, where risk mitigation is achieved through redundancy, diversity of error modes, and joint system reliability. This paper argues that evaluating AI agents in isolation systematically mischaracterizes their operational safety when deployed within human-in-the-loop environments. Using a recent laboratory safety […]

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Crypto contract verification is the definitive proof of identity in the DeFi ecosystem, transforming opaque bytecode into trusted logic. However, the process is often misunderstood, leading to frustration when the “Deterministic Black Box” of the compiler produces mismatching fingerprints. This article demystifies verification by visualizing it as a “Mirror Mechanism,” where local compilation environments must precisely replicate the deployment conditions. We move beyond manual web uploads to establish a robust, automated workflow using CLI tools and the “Standard […]

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