March 2026

arXiv:2510.17268v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data assimilation, consisting in the combination of a dynamical model with a set of noisy and incomplete observations in order to infer the state of a system over time, involves uncertainty in most settings. Building upon an existing deterministic machine learning approach, we propose a variational inference-based extension in which the predicted state follows a multivariate Gaussian distribution. Using the chaotic Lorenz-96 dynamics as a testing ground, we show that our new model […]

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arXiv:2510.06091v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Mixtures of linear dynamical systems (MoLDS) provide a path to model time-series data that exhibit diverse temporal dynamics across trajectories. However, its application remains challenging in complex and noisy settings, limiting its effectiveness for neural data analysis. Tensor-based moment methods can provide global identifiability guarantees for MoLDS, but their performance degrades under noise and complexity. Commonly used expectation-maximization (EM) methods offer flexibility in fitting latent models but are highly sensitive to initialization and […]

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arXiv:2509.21021v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Constraint-based causal discovery relies on numerous conditional independence tests (CITs), but its practical applicability is severely constrained by the prohibitive computational cost, especially as CITs themselves have high time complexity with respect to the sample size. To address this key bottleneck, we introduce the Ensemble Conditional Independence Test (E-CIT), a general-purpose and plug-and-play framework. E-CIT operates on an intuitive divide-and-aggregate strategy: it partitions the data into subsets, applies a given base CIT independently […]

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arXiv:2503.15477v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The success of Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) critically depends on the quality of the reward model. However, while this quality is primarily evaluated through accuracy, it remains unclear whether accuracy fully captures what makes a reward model an effective teacher. We address this question from an optimization perspective. First, we prove that regardless of how accurate a reward model is, if it induces low reward variance, then the RLHF objective suffers […]

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arXiv:2503.12354v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Traditional neural network regression models provide only point estimates, failing to capture predictive uncertainty. Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs) address this limitation by producing output distributions, enabling the construction of prediction intervals. However, the common assumption of Gaussian output distributions often results in overly wide intervals, particularly in the presence of outliers or deviations from normality. To enhance the adaptability of PNNs, we propose t-Distributed Neural Networks (TDistNNs), which generate t-distributed outputs, parameterized by […]

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arXiv:2502.01383v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Diffusion bridge models have recently become a powerful tool in the field of generative modeling. In this work, we leverage their power to address another important problem in machine learning and information theory, the estimation of the mutual information (MI) between two random variables. Neatly framing MI estimation as a domain transfer problem, we construct an unbiased estimator for data posing difficulties for conventional MI estimators. We showcase the performance of our estimator […]

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arXiv:2501.15910v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study the sample complexity of online reinforcement learning in the general hzyrev{non-episodic} setting of nonlinear dynamical systems with continuous state and action spaces. Our analysis accommodates a large class of dynamical systems ranging from a finite set of nonlinear candidate models to models with bounded and Lipschitz continuous dynamics, to systems that are parametrized by a compact and real-valued set of parameters. In the most general setting, our algorithm achieves a policy […]

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arXiv:2410.10258v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Linear bandits have become a cornerstone of online learning and sequential decision-making, providing solid theoretical foundations for balancing exploration and exploitation. Within this domain, matrix sketching serves as a critical component for achieving computational efficiency, especially when confronting high-dimensional problem instances. The sketch-based approaches reduce per-round complexity from $Omega(d^2)$ to $O(dl)$, where $d$ is the dimension and $l

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arXiv:2309.10370v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In this paper, we approach the problem of cost (loss) minimization in underparametrized shallow ReLU networks through the explicit construction of upper bounds which appeal to the structure of classification data, without use of gradient descent. A key focus is on elucidating the geometric structure of approximate and precise minimizers. We consider an $L^2$ cost function, input space $mathbb{R}^M$, output space ${mathbb R}^Q$ with $Qleq M$, and training input sample size that can […]

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arXiv:2306.09778v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In this paper, we provide a novel analytical perspective on the theoretical understanding of gradient-based learning algorithms by interpreting consensus-based optimization (CBO), a recently proposed multi-particle derivative-free optimization method, as a stochastic relaxation of gradient descent. Remarkably, we observe that through communication of the particles, CBO exhibits a stochastic gradient descent (SGD)-like behavior despite solely relying on evaluations of the objective function. The fundamental value of such link between CBO and SGD lies […]

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