March 2026

arXiv:2603.04109v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In causal analysis, understanding the causal mechanisms through which an intervention or treatment affects an outcome is often of central interest. We propose a test to evaluate (i) whether the causal effect of a treatment that is randomly assigned conditional on covariates is fully mediated by, or operates exclusively through, observed intermediate outcomes (referred to as mediators or surrogate outcomes), and (ii) whether the various causal mechanisms operating through different mediators are identifiable […]

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arXiv:2603.04007v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study fixed budget constrained best-arm identification in grouped bandits, where each arm consists of multiple independent attributes with stochastic rewards. An arm is considered feasible only if all its attributes’ means are above a given threshold. The aim is to find the feasible arm with the largest overall mean. We first derive a lower bound on the error probability for any algorithm on this setting. We then propose Feasibility Constrained Successive Rejects […]

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arXiv:2603.03922v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Inverse problems are the task of calibrating models to match data. They play a pivotal role in diverse engineering applications by allowing practitioners to align models with reality. In many applications, engineers and scientists do not have a complete picture of i) the detailed properties of a system (such as material properties, geometry, initial conditions, etc.); ii) the complete laws describing all dynamics at play (such as friction laws, complicated damping phenomena, and […]

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arXiv:2603.03819v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Regression discontinuity designs (RDD) are widely used for causal inference. In many empirical applications, treatment effects vary substantially with covariates, and ignoring such heterogeneity can lead to misleading conclusions, which motivates flexible modeling of heterogeneous treatment effects in RDD. To this end, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to estimating heterogeneous treatment effects based on Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). The key feature of our method lies in adopting a general Bayesian framework […]

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arXiv:2603.03778v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the Inverse Contextual Bandit (ICB) problem, in which a learner seeks to optimize a policy while an observer, who cannot access the learner’s rewards and only observes actions, aims to recover the underlying problem parameters. During the learning process, the learner’s behavior naturally transitions from exploration to exploitation, resulting in non-stationary action data that poses significant challenges for the observer. To address this issue, we propose a simple and effective framework […]

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arXiv:2603.03673v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Stein’s identity is a fundamental tool in machine learning with applications in generative models, stochastic optimization, and other problems involving gradients of expectations under Gaussian distributions. Less attention has been paid to problems with non-Gaussian expectations. Here, we consider the class of bounded-support $q$-Gaussians and derive a new Stein identity leading to gradient estimators which have nearly identical forms to the Gaussian ones, and which are similarly easy to implement. We do this […]

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arXiv:2603.03621v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We develop a rigorous framework for extending neural operators to handle out-of-distribution input functions. We leverage kernel approximation techniques and provide theory for characterizing the input-output function spaces in terms of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHSs). We provide theorems on the requirements for reliable extensions and their predicted approximation accuracy. We also establish formal relationships between specific kernel choices and their corresponding Sobolev Native Spaces. This connection further allows the extended neural operators […]

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arXiv:2603.03587v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Method validation and study design in causal inference rely on synthetic data with known counterfactuals. Existing simulators trade off distributional realism, the ability to capture mixed-type and multimodal tabular data, against causal controllability, including explicit control over overlap, unmeasured confounding, and treatment effect heterogeneity. We introduce CausalMix, a variational generative framework that closes this gap by coupling a mixture of Gaussian latent priors with data-type-specific decoders for continuous, binary, and categorical variables. The […]

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arXiv:2603.03480v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study reinforcement learning with delayed state observation, where the agent observes the current state after some random number of time steps. We propose an algorithm that combines the augmentation method and the upper confidence bound approach. For tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs), we derive a regret bound of $tilde{mathcal{O}}(H sqrt{D_{max} SAK})$, where $S$ and $A$ are the cardinalities of the state and action spaces, $H$ is the time horizon, $K$ is the […]

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arXiv:2603.04223v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce Latent Space Distribution Matching (LSDM), a novel framework for semi-supervised generative modeling of conditional distributions. LSDM operates in two stages: (i) learning a low-dimensional latent space from both paired and unpaired data, and (ii) performing joint distribution matching in this space via the 1-Wasserstein distance, using only paired data. This two-step approach minimizes an upper bound on the 1-Wasserstein distance between joint distributions, reducing reliance on scarce paired samples while enabling […]

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