January 2026

arXiv:2508.20614v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Amortized Bayesian inference (ABI) offers fast, scalable approximations to posterior densities by training neural surrogates on data simulated from the statistical model. However, ABI methods are highly sensitive to model misspecification: when observed data fall outside the training distribution (generative scope of the statistical models), neural surrogates can behave unpredictably. This makes it a challenge in a model comparison setting, where multiple statistical models are considered, of which at least some are misspecified. […]

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arXiv:2507.17544v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Differential privacy has become a cornerstone in the development of privacy-preserving learning algorithms. This work addresses optimizing differentially private kernel learning within the empirical risk minimization (ERM) framework. We propose a novel differentially private kernel ERM algorithm based on random projection in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space using Gaussian processes. Our method achieves minimax-optimal excess risk for both the squared loss and Lipschitz-smooth convex loss functions under a local strong convexity condition. We […]

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arXiv:2507.05064v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Gaussian processes are flexible, probabilistic, non-parametric models widely used in machine learning and statistics. However, their scalability to large data sets is limited by computational constraints. To overcome these challenges, we propose Vecchia-inducing-points full-scale (VIF) approximations combining the strengths of global inducing points and local Vecchia approximations. Vecchia approximations excel in settings with low-dimensional inputs and moderately smooth covariance functions, while inducing point methods are better suited to high-dimensional inputs and smoother covariance […]

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arXiv:2506.20406v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) provide a principled framework for optimizing sequential decision-making in domains where decisions must adapt over time in response to individual trajectories, such as healthcare, education, and digital interventions. However, existing statistical methods often rely on strong positivity assumptions and lack robustness under partial data coverage, while offline reinforcement learning approaches typically focus on average training performance, lack statistical guarantees, and require solving complex optimization problems. To address these challenges, […]

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arXiv:2503.05542v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We consider standard gradient descent, gradient flow and conjugate gradients as iterative algorithms for minimising a penalised ridge criterion in linear regression. While it is well known that conjugate gradients exhibit fast numerical convergence, the statistical properties of their iterates are more difficult to assess due to inherent non-linearities and dependencies. On the other hand, standard gradient flow is a linear method with well-known regularising properties when stopped early. By an explicit non-standard […]

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arXiv:2601.22005v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Distance metrics are central to machine learning, yet distances between ensembles of quantum states remain poorly understood due to fundamental quantum measurement constraints. We introduce a hierarchy of integral probability metrics, termed MMD-$k$, which generalizes the maximum mean discrepancy to quantum ensembles and exhibit a strict trade-off between discriminative power and statistical efficiency as the moment order $k$ increases. For pure-state ensembles of size $N$, estimating MMD-$k$ using experimentally feasible SWAP-test-based estimators requires […]

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arXiv:2601.21924v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study online transfer reinforcement learning (RL) in episodic Markov decision processes, where experience from related source tasks is available during learning on a target task. A fundamental difficulty is that task similarity is typically defined in terms of rewards or transitions, whereas online RL algorithms operate on Bellman regression targets. As a result, naively reusing source Bellman updates introduces systematic bias and invalidates regret guarantees. We identify one-step Bellman alignment as the […]

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arXiv:2601.21917v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We show that computing even very coarse approximations of critical points is intractable for simple classes of nonconvex functions. More concretely, we prove that if there exists a polynomial-time algorithm that takes as input a polynomial in $n$ variables of constant degree (as low as three) and outputs a point whose gradient has Euclidean norm at most $2^n$ whenever the polynomial has a critical point, then P=NP. The algorithm is permitted to return […]

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arXiv:2601.21895v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modern large language models (LLMs) such as GPT, Claude, and Gemini have transformed the way we learn, work, and communicate. Yet, their ability to produce highly human-like text raises serious concerns about misinformation and academic integrity, making it an urgent need for reliable algorithms to detect LLM-generated content. In this paper, we start by presenting a geometric approach to demystify rewrite-based detection algorithms, revealing their underlying rationale and demonstrating their generalization ability. Building […]

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arXiv:2601.21887v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We design a variational state estimation (VSE) method that provides a closed-form Gaussian posterior of an underlying complex dynamical process from (noisy) nonlinear measurements. The complex process is model-free. That is, we do not have a suitable physics-based model characterizing the temporal evolution of the process state. The closed-form Gaussian posterior is provided by a recurrent neural network (RNN). The use of RNN is computationally simple in the inference phase. For learning the […]

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