January 2026

arXiv:2601.21868v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Understanding the stability and long-time behavior of generative models is a fundamental problem in modern machine learning. This paper provides quantitative bounds on the sampling error of score-based generative models by leveraging stability and forgetting properties of the Markov chain associated with the reverse-time dynamics. Under weak assumptions, we provide the two structural properties to ensure the propagation of initialization and discretization errors of the backward process: a Lyapunov drift condition and a […]

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arXiv:2601.21831v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce the use of latent subspaces in the exponential parameter space of product manifolds of categorial distributions, as a tool for learning generative models of discrete data. The low-dimensional latent space encodes statistical dependencies and removes redundant degrees of freedom among the categorial variables. We equip the parameter domain with a Riemannian geometry such that the spaces and distances are related by isometries which enables consistent flow matching. In particular, geodesics become […]

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arXiv:2601.21817v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Evaluating large language models (LLMs) on open-ended tasks without ground-truth labels is increasingly done via the LLM-as-a-judge paradigm. A critical but under-modeled issue is that judge LLMs differ substantially in reliability; treating all judges equally can yield biased leaderboards and misleading uncertainty estimates. More data can make evaluation more confidently wrong under misspecified aggregation. We propose a judge-aware ranking framework that extends the Bradley-Terry-Luce model by introducing judge-specific discrimination parameters, jointly estimating latent […]

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arXiv:2601.21455v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We demonstrate that the interval length might be deceptively improved through a counter-intuitive approach termed Prejudicial Trick (PT), while the coverage remains valid. Specifically, for any given test sample, PT probabilistically returns an interval, which is either null or constructed using an adjusted confidence […]

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arXiv:2601.21324v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Distributionally robust optimisation (DRO) minimises the worst-case expected loss over an ambiguity set that can capture distributional shifts in out-of-sample environments. While Huber (linear-vacuous) contamination is a classical minimal-assumption model for an $varepsilon$-fraction of arbitrary perturbations, including it in an ambiguity set can make the worst-case risk infinite and the DRO objective vacuous unless one imposes strong boundedness or support assumptions. We address these challenges by introducing bulk-calibrated credal ambiguity sets: we learn […]

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arXiv:2601.21217v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce a flexible empirical Bayes approach for fitting Bayesian generalized linear models. Specifically, we adopt a novel mean-field variational inference (VI) method and the prior is estimated within the VI algorithm, making the method tuning-free. Unlike traditional VI methods that optimize the posterior density function, our approach directly optimizes the posterior mean and prior parameters. This formulation reduces the number of parameters to optimize and enables the use of scalable algorithms such […]

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arXiv:2601.21104v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We address the problem of accurate, training-free guidance for conditional generation in trained diffusion models. Existing methods typically rely on point-estimates to approximate the posterior score, often resulting in biased approximations that fail to capture multimodality inherent to the reverse process of diffusion models. We propose a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) framework that constructs an unbiased estimator of $p_theta(y|x_t)$ by integrating over the full denoising distribution via Monte Carlo approximation. To ensure computational […]

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arXiv:2601.21089v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce a novel machine learning method called the Penalized Profile Support Vector Machine based on the Gabriel edited set for the computation of the probability of failure for a complex system as determined by a threshold condition on a computer model of system behavior. The method is designed to minimize the number of evaluations of the computer model while preserving the geometry of the decision boundary that determines the probability. It employs […]

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arXiv:2601.21026v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sampling configurations at thermodynamic equilibrium is a central challenge in statistical physics. Boltzmann Generators (BGs) tackle it by combining a generative model with a Monte Carlo (MC) correction step to obtain asymptotically unbiased samples from an unnormalized target. Most current BGs use classic MC mechanisms such as importance sampling, which both require tractable likelihoods from the backbone model and scale poorly in high-dimensional, multi-modal targets. We study BGs built on annealed Monte Carlo […]

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arXiv:2601.21112v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Frontier language model agents can exhibit misaligned behaviors, including deception, exploiting reward hacks, and pursuing hidden objectives. To control potentially misaligned agents, we can use LLMs themselves to monitor for misbehavior. In this paper, we study how information access affects LLM monitor performance. While one might expect that monitors perform better when they have access to more of the monitored agents’ reasoning and actions, we find that contemporary systems often perform better with […]

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