Benchmarking Tabular Foundation Models for Conditional Density Estimation in Regression
arXiv:2603.26611v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conditional density estimation (CDE) – recovering the full conditional distribution of a response given tabular covariates – is essential in settings with heteroscedasticity, multimodality, or asymmetric uncertainty. Recent tabular foundation models, such as TabPFN and TabICL, naturally produce predictive distributions, but their effectiveness as general-purpose CDE methods has not been systematically evaluated, unlike their performance for point prediction, which is well studied. We benchmark three tabular foundation model variants against a diverse set […]