A Variational Estimator for $L_p$ Calibration Errors
arXiv:2602.24230v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Calibration$unicode{x2014}$the problem of ensuring that predicted probabilities align with observed class frequencies$unicode{x2014}$is a basic desideratum for reliable prediction with machine learning systems. Calibration error is traditionally assessed via a divergence function, using the expected divergence between predictions and empirical frequencies. Accurately estimating this quantity is challenging, especially in the multiclass setting. Here, we show how to extend a recent variational framework for estimating calibration errors beyond divergences induced induced by proper losses, to […]