Step-by-Step Causality: Transparent Causal Discovery with Multi-Agent Tree-Query and Adversarial Confidence Estimation
arXiv:2601.10137v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal discovery aims to recover “what causes what”, but classical constraint-based methods (e.g., PC, FCI) suffer from error propagation, and recent LLM-based causal oracles often behave as opaque, confidence-free black boxes. This paper introduces Tree-Query, a tree-structured, multi-expert LLM framework that reduces pairwise causal discovery to a short sequence of queries about backdoor paths, (in)dependence, latent confounding, and causal direction, yielding interpretable judgments with robustness-aware confidence scores. Theoretical guarantees are provided for asymptotic […]