arXiv:2601.05473v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper presents a conceptual and methodological framework for large language model (LLM) based student simulation in educational settings. The authors identify a core failure mode, termed the “competence paradox” in which broadly capable LLMs are asked to emulate partially knowledgeable learners, leading to unrealistic error patterns and learning dynamics. To address this, the paper reframes student simulation as a constrained generation problem governed by an explicit Epistemic State Specification (ESS), which defines […]

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arXiv:2602.22884v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) enables efficient posterior estimation using generative neural networks trained on simulated data, but often suffers from performance degradation under model misspecification. While self-consistency (SC) training on unlabeled empirical data can enhance network robustness, current approaches are limited to static, single-task settings and fail to handle sequentially arriving data or distribution shifts. We propose a continual learning framework for ABI that decouples simulation-based pre-training from unsupervised sequential SC fine-tuning on […]

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arXiv:2602.21421v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forest monitoring is critical for climate change mitigation. However, existing global tree height maps provide only static snapshots and do not capture temporal forest dynamics, which are essential for accurate carbon accounting. We introduce ECHOSAT, a global and temporally consistent tree height map at 10 m resolution spanning multiple years. To this end, we resort to multi-sensor satellite data to train a specialized vision transformer model, which performs pixel-level temporal regression. A self-supervised […]

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arXiv:2603.20655v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We introduce Exponential Family Discriminant Analysis (EFDA), a unified generative framework that extends classical Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) beyond the Gaussian setting to any member of the exponential family. Under the assumption that each class-conditional density belongs to a common exponential family, EFDA derives closed-form maximum-likelihood estimators for all natural parameters and yields a decision rule that is linear in the sufficient statistic, recovering LDA as a special case and capturing nonlinear decision […]

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Long-term Holter analysis requires software tools capable of automating signal preprocessing, temporal segmentation, probabilistic computation, and result visualization in a reproducible and interpretable manner. In this research, a modular software system for automated analysis of cardiac dynamics was developed following a software engineering perspective and an iterative lifecycle based on Scrum, including requirements definition, sprint planning, development, integration, testing, review with a medical specialist, and refinement. The platform was designed to analyze standardized temporal windows of 12, 14, […]

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The success of reinforcement learning (RL) is fundamentally tied to having a reward function that accurately reflects the task objective. Yet, designing reward functions is notoriously time-consuming and prone to misspecification. To address this issue, our first goal is to understand how to support RL practitioners in specifying appropriate weights for a reward function. We leverage the Trajectory Alignment Coefficient (TAC), a metric that evaluates how closely a reward function’s induced preferences match those of a domain expert. […]

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Clinical trials are characterized by high costs, extended timelines, and substantial operational risk, yet reliable prospective methods for predicting trial success before initiation remain limited. Existing artificial intelligence approaches often focus on isolated metrics or specific development stages and frequently rely on variables unavailable at the trial design phase, limiting real-world applicability. We present a hierarchical latent risk-aware machine learning framework for prospective prediction of clinical trial operational success using a curated subset of TrialsBank, a proprietary AI-ready […]

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arXiv:2504.21419v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce kernel density machines (KDM), an agnostic kernel-based framework for learning the Radon-Nikodym derivative (density) between probability measures under minimal assumptions. KDM applies to general measurable spaces and avoids the structural requirements common in classical nonparametric density estimators. We construct a sample estimator and prove its consistency and a functional central limit theorem. To enable scalability, we develop Nystrom-type low-rank approximations and derive optimal error rates, filling a gap in the literature […]

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