Conformal Risk Control for Safety-Critical Wildfire Evacuation Mapping: A Comparative Study of Tabular, Spatial, and Graph-Based Models
arXiv:2603.22331v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Every wildfire prediction model deployed today shares a dangerous property: none of these methods provides formal guarantees on how much fire spread is missed. Despite extensive work on wildfire spread prediction using deep learning, no prior study has applied distribution-free safety guarantees to this domain, leaving evacuation planners reliant on probability thresholds with no formal assurance. We address this gap by presenting, to our knowledge, the first application of conformal risk control (CRC) […]