technocracy

arXiv:2508.01321v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: To reach human level intelligence, learning algorithms need to incorporate causal reasoning. But identifying causality, and particularly counterfactual reasoning, remains elusive. In this paper, we make progress on counterfactual inference in nonseparable outcome models by utilizing instrumental variables (IVs). IVs are a classic tool for mitigating bias from unobserved confounders when estimating causal effects. While IV methods for effect estimation have been extended to nonseparable outcome models under different assumptions, existing IV approaches […]

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arXiv:2602.23545v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In the real world, planning is often challenged by distribution shifts. As such, a model of the environment obtained under one set of conditions may no longer remain valid as the distribution of states or the environment dynamics change, which in turn causes previously learned strategies to fail. In this work, we propose a theoretical framework for planning under partial observability using Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) formulated using causal knowledge. By […]

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while I understand the difference between first visit Monte Carlo and every visit, are there any particular cases where we’d strongly prefer first visit and vice versa? like from my understanding, there are situations where first and every visit can be identical, but some scenarios where every visit is much better( eg. blackjack where there are barely any chances for states to repeat versus scenarios like automated car driving, where episodes are scarce so it becomes valuable to […]

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Nonstationary time series forecasting suffers from the distribution shift issue due to the different distributions that produce the training and test data. Existing methods attempt to alleviate the dependence by, e.g., removing low-order moments from each individual sample. These solutions fail to capture the underlying time-evolving structure across samples and do not model the complex time structure. In this paper, we aim to address the distribution shift in the frequency space by considering all possible time structures. To […]

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arXiv:2603.26764v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Portable CT scanners enable early stroke detection in prehospital and low-resource settings but require reduced radiation doses, introducing noise that degrades diagnostic reliability. We present a deep learning framework for stroke classification from simulated low-dose CT (LDCT) brain scans for AI-assisted triage in mobile clinical environments. Controlled Poisson noise is applied to high-dose CT images to simulate realistic LDCT conditions. We compare two pipelines: (1) direct classification of noisy LDCT images and (2) […]

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Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is a prevalent neurodevelopmental disorder with limited objective diagnostic tools, highlighting the urgent need for objective, biology-based diagnostic frameworks in precision psychiatry. We integrate urinary metabolomics with an interpretable machine learning framework to identify biochemical signatures associated with ADHD. Targeted metabolomic profiles from 52 ADHD and 46 control participants were analyzed using a Closest Resemblance (CR) classifier with embedded feature selection. The CR model outperformed Random Forest and K-Nearest Neighbor classifiers, achieving an […]

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The Design & Implementation of Sprites I wrote about Sprites last week Here’s Thomas Ptacek from Fly with the insider details on how they work under the hood. I like this framing of them as “disposable computers”: Sprites are ball-point disposable computers. Whatever mark you mean to make, we’ve rigged it so you’re never more than a second or two away from having a Sprite to do it with. I’ve noticed that new Fly Machines can take a […]

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Published on December 20, 2025 12:17 AM GMT Screwtape, as the global ACX meetups czar, has to be reasonable and responsible in his advice giving for running meetups. And the advice is great! It is unobjectionably great. I am here to give you more objectionable advice, as another organizer who’s run two weekend retreats and a cool hundred rationality meetups over the last two years. As the advice is objectionable (in that, I can see reasonable people disagreeing), […]

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