Design Stability in Adaptive Experiments: Implications for Treatment Effect Estimation
arXiv:2510.22351v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) under sequentially adaptive treatment assignment mechanisms. In contrast to classical completely randomized designs, we consider a setting in which the probability of assigning treatment to each experimental unit may depend on prior assignments and observed outcomes. Within the potential outcomes framework, we propose and analyze two natural estimators for the ATE: the inverse propensity weighted (IPW) estimator and an augmented IPW (AIPW) […]