Generating Counterfactual Patient Timelines from Real-World Data
arXiv:2604.02337v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Counterfactual simulation – exploring hypothetical consequences under alternative clinical scenarios – holds promise for transformative applications such as personalized medicine and in silico trials. However, it remains challenging due to methodological limitations. Here, we show that an autoregressive generative model trained on real-world data from over 300,000 patients and 400 million patient timeline entries can generate clinically plausible counterfactual trajectories. As a validation task, we applied the model to patients hospitalized with COVID-19 […]