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arXiv:2605.27478v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce Triangular-Reference Schr”odinger Bridges for Time Series (TR-SBTS), a conservative extension of the SBTS framework in which the Brownian reference is replaced by an intervalwise frozen, possibly degenerate diffusion reference, triangular across a hierarchy of latent volatility levels. The construction is a single entropy projection on the augmented state space, with the variational constraint imposed jointly across time and the latent levels and unfolded hierarchically by the disintegration of relative entropy. The […]

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arXiv:2605.27477v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal-discovery algorithms return a directed graph, yet provide no principled means of distinguishing edge directions identified by the data from those assigned without an identifying assumption. Under the standard Markov and faithfulness conditions, the observational distribution identifies only a Markov equivalence class; orientations within that class are not determined by the joint distribution and cannot be recovered from additional samples alone, but require either a functional restriction or an intervention. We introduce a […]

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arXiv:2605.27474v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating how an outcome responds to a continuous treatment (the Average Dose-Response Function, or ADRF) is a core causal-inference primitive. However, when outcomes possess heavy tails, standard robust double machine learning (DML) deliberately suppresses these extremes to stabilize the bulk average. In high-stakes settings, such as financial returns or climate losses, this omitted 1-in-1000 extreme event is the actual target quantity. Furthermore, current methods that read the tail from a model’s residuals suffer […]

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arXiv:2605.27473v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating how much an intervention helps a given individual the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is increasingly central to decision-making in medicine, economics, and policy, where an estimate is most useful when accompanied by a calibrated uncertainty interval. We study the few-placebo regime, in which one treatment arm is much smaller than the other, as arises in unequal-allocation trials and small-holdout $A/B$ tests. The standard estimator in this setting is the X-Learner, and […]

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sqlite AGENTS.md SQLite gained an AGENTS.md file five days ago – but it’s not intended for their own development, it’s presumably aimed at people who are pointing agents at the SQLite codebase. It includes: SQLite does not accept pull requests without prior agreement and/or accompanying legal paperwork that places the pull request in the public domain. However, the human SQLite developers will review a concise and well-written pull request as a proof-of-concept prior to reimplementing the changes themselves. […]

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