March 2026

arXiv:2603.01971v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modern machine learning models can be accurate on average yet still make mistakes that dominate deployment cost. We introduce Locus, a distribution-free wrapper that produces a per-input loss-scale reliability score for a fixed prediction function. Rather than quantifying uncertainty about the label, Locus models the realized loss of the prediction function using any engine that outputs a predictive distribution for the loss given an input. A simple split-calibration step turns this function into […]

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arXiv:2603.01719v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, but standard conformal regression intervals can be inefficient under heteroscedasticity and skewness. In particular, popular constructions such as conformalized quantile regression (CQR) often inherit a fixed notion of center and enforce equal-tailed errors, which can displace the interval away from high-density regions and produce unnecessarily wide sets. We propose Co-optimization for Adaptive Conformal Prediction (CoCP), a framework that learns prediction intervals by jointly optimizing a […]

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arXiv:2603.01339v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study experiments on interacting populations of humans and AI agents, where both unit types and the interaction network remain unobserved. Although causal effects propagate throughout the system, the goal is to estimate effects on humans. Examples include online platforms where human users interact alongside AI-driven accounts. We assume a human-AI prior that gives each unit a probability of being human. While humans cannot be distinguished at the unit level, the prior allows […]

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arXiv:2603.01337v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study adaptive estimation and inference in ill-posed linear inverse problems defined by conditional moment restrictions. Existing regularized estimators such as Regularized DeepIV (RDIV) require prior knowledge of the smoothness of the nuisance function, typically encoded by a beta source condition to tune their regularization parameters. In practice, this smoothness is unknown, and misspecified hyperparameters can lead to suboptimal convergence or instability. We introduce a discrepancy-principle-based framework for adaptive hyperparameter selection that automatically […]

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arXiv:2603.00971v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this work, we investigate the generalization properties of random feature methods. Our analysis extends prior results for Tikhonov regularization to a broad class of spectral regularization techniques and further generalizes the setting to operator-valued kernels. This unified framework enables a rigorous theoretical analysis of neural operators and neural networks through the lens of the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK). In particular, it allows us to establish optimal learning rates and provides a good […]

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arXiv:2603.00968v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ($text{NSE}$) is a widely used, positively oriented relative measure for evaluating forecasts across multiple time series. However, it lacks a decision-theoretic foundation for this purpose. To address this, we examine its negatively oriented counterpart, which we refer to as Nash-Sutcliffe loss, defined as $L_{text{NS}} = 1 – text{NSE}$. We prove that $L_{text{NS}}$ is strictly consistent for an elicitable and identifiable multi-dimensional functional, which we name the Nash-Sutcliffe functional. This functional […]

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arXiv:2603.00935v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Latent-space Bayesian optimization (LSBO) extends Bayesian optimization to structured domains, such as molecular design, by searching in the continuous latent space of a generative model. However, most LSBO methods assume a fixed objective, whereas real design campaigns often face temporal drift (e.g., evolving preferences or shifting targets). Bringing time-varying BO into LSBO is nontrivial: drift can affect not only the surrogate, but also the latent search space geometry induced by the representation. We […]

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arXiv:2603.00772v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Score-based generative models (SGMs) aim at generating samples from a target distribution by approximating the reverse-time dynamics of a stochastic differential equation. Despite their strong empirical performance, classical samplers initialized from a Gaussian distribution require a long time horizon noising typically inducing a large number of discretization steps and high computational cost. In this work, we present a Kullback-Leibler convergence analysis of Variance Exploding diffusion samplers that highlights the critical role of the […]

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arXiv:2603.00714v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Visual analysis and reconstruction of pipeline inner walls remain challenging in industrial inspection scenarios. This paper presents a dedicated reconstruction system for pipeline inner walls via industrial endoscopes, which is built on panoramic image stitching technology. Equipped with a custom graphical user interface (GUI), the system extracts key frames from endoscope video footage, and integrates polar coordinate transformation with image stitching techniques to unwrap annular video frames of pipeline inner walls into planar […]

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arXiv:2603.00711v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Backdoor attacks pose a critical threat to the security of deep neural networks, yet existing efforts on universal backdoors often rely on visually salient patterns, making them easier to detect and less practical at scale. In this work, we introduce a novel imperceptible universal backdoor attack that simultaneously controls all target classes with minimal poisoning while preserving stealth. Our key idea is to leverage graph convolutional networks (GCNs) to model inter-class relationships and […]

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