March 2026

arXiv:2510.05060v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods can fail if the sample size is small and often require expensive retraining when the underlying data distribution changes. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP), a novel training-free conformal prediction method for […]

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arXiv:2510.03605v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Test-time scaling improves the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) by allocating extra compute to generate longer Chains-of-Thoughts (CoTs). This enables models to tackle more complex problem by breaking them down into additional steps, backtracking, and correcting mistakes. Despite its strong performance–demonstrated by OpenAI’s o1 and DeepSeek R1, the conditions in the training data under which long CoTs emerge, and when such long CoTs improve the performance, remain unclear. In this paper, […]

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arXiv:2510.01339v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Computational imaging methods increasingly rely on powerful generative diffusion models to tackle challenging image restoration tasks. In particular, state-of-the-art zero-shot image inverse solvers leverage distilled text-to-image latent diffusion models (LDMs) to achieve unprecedented accuracy and perceptual quality with high computational efficiency. However, extending these advances to high-definition video restoration remains a significant challenge, due to the need to recover fine spatial detail while capturing subtle temporal dependencies. Consequently, methods that naively apply image-based […]

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arXiv:2509.23357v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Under the data manifold hypothesis, high-dimensional data are concentrated near a low-dimensional manifold. We study the problem of Riemannian optimization over such manifolds when they are given only implicitly through the data distribution, and the standard manifold operations required by classical algorithms are unavailable. This formulation captures a broad class of data-driven design problems that are central to modern generative AI. Our key idea is to introduce a link function that connects the […]

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arXiv:2509.22240v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In clinical applications, the utility of segmentation models is often based on the accuracy of derived downstream metrics such as organ size, rather than by the pixel-level accuracy of the segmentation masks themselves. Thus, uncertainty quantification for such metrics is crucial for decision-making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular framework to derive such principled uncertainty guarantees, but applying CP naively to the final scalar metric is inefficient because it treats the complex, non-linear […]

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arXiv:2509.21513v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present DistillKac, a fast image generator that uses the damped wave equation and its stochastic Kac representation to move probability mass at finite speed. In contrast to diffusion models whose reverse time velocities can become stiff and implicitly allow unbounded propagation speed, Kac dynamics enforce finite speed transport and yield globally bounded kinetic energy. Building on this structure, we introduce classifier-free guidance in velocity space that preserves square integrability under mild conditions. […]

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arXiv:2509.20323v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We prove the first guarantees of sparse recovery for ReLU neural networks, where the sparse network weights constitute the signal to be recovered. Specifically, we study structural properties of the sparse network weights for two-layer, scalar-output networks under which a simple iterative hard thresholding algorithm recovers these weights exactly, using memory that grows linearly in the number of nonzero weights. We validate this theoretical result with simple experiments on recovery of sparse planted […]

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arXiv:2509.02391v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The success of federated learning (FL) ultimately depends on how strategic participants behave under partial observability, yet most formulations still treat FL as a static optimization problem. We instead view FL deployments as governed strategic systems and develop an analytical framework that separates welfare-improving behavior from metric gaming. Within this framework, we introduce indices that quantify manipulability, the price of gaming, and the price of cooperation, and we use them to study how […]

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arXiv:2508.11727v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Multivariate Hawkes process provides a powerful framework for modeling temporal dependencies and event-driven interactions in complex systems. While existing methods primarily focus on uncovering causal structures among observed subprocesses, real-world systems are often only partially observed, with latent subprocesses posing significant challenges. In this paper, we show that continuous-time event sequences can be represented by a discrete-time causal model as the time interval shrinks, and we leverage this insight to establish necessary and […]

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arXiv:2508.05901v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Let $S$ be a finite set, and $X_1,ldots,X_n$ an i.i.d. uniform sample from $S$. To estimate the size $|S|$, without further structure, one can wait for repeats and use the birthday problem. This requires a sample size of the order $|S|^frac{1}{2}$. On the other hand, if $S={1,2,ldots,|S|}$, the maximum of the sample blown up by $n/(n-1)$ gives an efficient estimator based on any growing sample size. This paper gives refinements that interpolate between […]

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