March 2026

arXiv:2603.02452v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A major focus in designing methods for learning distributions defined on manifolds is to alleviate the need to implicitly learn the manifold so that learning can concentrate on the data distribution within the manifold. However, accomplishing this often leads to compute-intensive solutions. In this work, we propose a simple modification to denoising score-matching in the ambient space to implicitly account for the manifold, thereby reducing the burden of learning the manifold while maintaining […]

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arXiv:2603.02429v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Underdamped Langevin dynamics (ULD) is a widely-used sampler for Gibbs distributions $pipropto e^{-V}$, and is often empirically effective in high dimensions. However, existing non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for discretized ULD typically scale polynomially with the ambient dimension $d$, leading to vacuous bounds when $d$ is large. The main known dimension-free result concerns the randomized midpoint discretization in Wasserstein-2 distance (Liu et al.,2023), while dimension-independent guarantees for ULD discretizations in KL divergence have remained open. […]

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arXiv:2603.02289v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Estimating causal effects is particularly challenging when outcomes arise in complex, non-Euclidean spaces, where conventional methods often fail to capture meaningful structural variation. We develop a framework for topological causal inference that defines treatment effects through differences in the topological structure of potential outcomes, summarized by power-weighted silhouette functions of persistence diagrams. We develop an efficient, doubly robust estimator in a fully nonparametric model, establish functional weak convergence, and construct a formal test […]

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arXiv:2603.02275v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) is a widely used manifold learning technique for dimensionality reduction. This paper studies UMAP, supervised UMAP, and several competing dimensionality reduction methods, including Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Kernel PCA, Sliced Inverse Regression (SIR), Kernel SIR, and t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding, through a comprehensive comparative analysis. Although UMAP has attracted substantial attention for preserving local and global structures, its supervised extensions, particularly for regression settings, remain rather underexplored. […]

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arXiv:2603.03235v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Selecting the number of clusters remains a fundamental challenge in unsupervised learning. Existing criteria typically target a single “optimal” partition, often overlooking statistically meaningful structure present at multiple resolutions. We introduce ElbowSig, a framework that formalizes the heuristic “elbow” method as a rigorous inferential problem. Our approach centers on a normalized discrete curvature statistic derived from the cluster heterogeneity sequence, which is evaluated against a null distribution of unstructured data. We derive the […]

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arXiv:2603.03191v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In off policy evaluation (OPE) for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), an agent must infer hidden states from past observations, which exacerbates both the curse of horizon and the curse of memory in existing OPE methods. This paper introduces a novel covering analysis framework that exploits the intrinsic metric structure of the belief space (distributions over latent states) to relax traditional coverage assumptions. By assuming value relevant functions are Lipschitz continuous in […]

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arXiv:2603.03035v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty quantification is central to many applications of causal machine learning, yet principled Bayesian inference for causal effects remains challenging. Standard Bayesian approaches typically require specifying a probabilistic model for the data-generating process, including high-dimensional nuisance components such as propensity scores and outcome regressions. Standard posteriors are thus vulnerable to strong modeling choices, including complex prior elicitation. In this paper, we propose a generalized Bayesian framework for causal inference. Our framework avoids explicit […]

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arXiv:2603.02673v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Functional ANOVA offers a principled framework for interpretability by decomposing a model’s prediction into main effects and higher-order interactions. For independent features, this decomposition is well-defined, strongly linked with SHAP values, and serves as a cornerstone of additive explainability. However, the lack of an explicit closed-form expression for general dependent distributions has forced practitioners to rely on costly sampling-based approximations. We completely resolve this limitation for categorical inputs. By bridging functional analysis with […]

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arXiv:2603.02607v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sparse PCA is one of the most well-studied problems in high-dimensional statistics. In this problem, we are given samples from a distribution with covariance $Sigma$, whose top eigenvector $v in R^d$ is $s$-sparse. Existing sparse PCA algorithms can be broadly categorized into (1) combinatorial algorithms (e.g., diagonal or elementwise covariance thresholding) and (2) SDP-based algorithms. While combinatorial algorithms are much simpler, they are typically only analyzed under the spiked identity model (where $Sigma […]

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arXiv:2603.02594v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The low-degree polynomial framework has been highly successful in predicting computational versus statistical gaps for high-dimensional problems in average-case analysis and machine learning. This success has led to the low-degree conjecture, which posits that this method captures the power and limitations of efficient algorithms for a wide class of high-dimensional statistical problems. We identify a natural and basic hypothesis testing problem in $mathbb{R}^n$ which is polynomial time solvable, but for which the low-degree […]

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