March 2026

arXiv:2603.04420v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Critical transitions are the abrupt shifts between qualitatively different states of a system, and they are crucial to understanding tipping points in complex dynamical systems across ecology, climate science, and biology. Detecting these shifts typically involves extensive forward simulations or bifurcation analyses, which are often computationally intensive and limited by parameter sampling. In this study, we propose a novel machine learning approach based on deep neural networks (DNNs) called equilibrium-informed neural networks (EINNs) […]

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arXiv:2603.04418v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Standard direct forecasting models typically rely on point-wise objectives such as Mean Squared Error, which fail to capture the complex spatio-temporal dependencies inherent in graph-structured signals. While recent frequency-domain approaches such as FreDF mitigate temporal autocorrelation, they often overlook spatial and cross spatio-temporal interactions. To address this limitation, we propose FreST Loss, a frequency-enhanced spatio-temporal training objective that extends supervision to the joint spatio-temporal spectrum. By leveraging the Joint Fourier Transform (JFT), FreST […]

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arXiv:2603.05480v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Singular statistical models-including mixtures, matrix factorization, and neural networks-violate regular asymptotics due to parameter non-identifiability and degenerate Fisher geometry. Although singular learning theory characterizes marginal likelihood behavior through invariants such as the real log canonical threshold and singular fluctuation, these quantities remain difficult to interpret operationally. At the same time, widely used criteria such as WAIC and WBIC appear disconnected from underlying singular geometry. We show that posterior tempering induces a one-parameter deformation […]

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arXiv:2603.05396v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The emergence of generative AI models has dramatically expanded the availability and use of synthetic data across scientific, industrial, and policy domains. While these developments open new possibilities for data analysis, they also raise fundamental statistical questions about when synthetic data can be used in a valid, reliable, and principled manner. This paper reviews the current landscape of synthetic data generation and use from a statistical perspective, with the goal of clarifying the […]

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arXiv:2603.05317v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In clinical prediction settings the importance of a high-dimensional feature like genomics is often assessed by evaluating the change in predictive performance when adding it to a set of traditional clinical variables. This approach is questionable, because it does not account for collinearity nor known directionality of dependencies between variables. We suggest to use asymmetric Shapley values as a more suitable alternative to quantify feature importance in the context of a mixed-dimensional prediction […]

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arXiv:2603.05288v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Finding patient subgroups with similar characteristics is crucial for personalized decision-making in various disciplines such as healthcare and policy evaluation. While most existing approaches rely on unsupervised clustering methods, there is a growing trend toward using supervised clustering methods that identify operationalizable subgroups in the context of a specific outcome of interest. We propose Bayesian Supervised Causal Clustering (BSCC), with treatment effect as outcome to guide the clustering process. BSCC identifies homogenous subgroups […]

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arXiv:2603.05226v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Individualized decision rules (IDRs) have become increasingly prevalent in societal applications such as personalized marketing, healthcare, and public policy design. However, a critical ethical concern arises from the potential discriminatory effects of IDRs trained on biased data. These algorithms may disproportionately harm individuals from minority subgroups defined by sensitive attributes like gender, race, or language. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework that incorporates demographic parity (DP) and conditional demographic parity […]

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arXiv:2603.04895v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Overparameterized ML models, including neural networks, typically induce underdetermined training objectives with multiple global minima. The implicit bias refers to the limiting global minimum that is attained by a common optimization algorithm, such as gradient descent (GD). In this paper, we characterize the implicit bias of GD for training a shallow ReLU model with the squared loss on high-dimensional random features. Prior work showed that the implicit bias does not exist in the […]

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arXiv:2603.04807v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study how architectural inductive bias reshapes the implicit regularization induced by the edge-of-stability phenomenon in gradient descent. Prior work has established that for fully connected networks, the strength of this regularization is governed solely by the global input geometry; consequently, it is insufficient to prevent overfitting on difficult distributions such as the high-dimensional sphere. In this paper, we show that locality and weight sharing fundamentally change this picture. Specifically, we prove that […]

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arXiv:2603.04635v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Independence testing is a fundamental problem in statistical inference: given samples from a joint distribution $p$ over multiple random variables, the goal is to determine whether $p$ is a product distribution or is $epsilon$-far from all product distributions in total variation distance. In the non-parametric finite-sample regime, this task is notoriously expensive, as the minimax sample complexity scales polynomially with the support size. In this work, we move beyond these worst-case limitations by […]

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