March 2026

arXiv:2510.05825v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Inference-Time Scaling (ITS) improves language models by allocating more computation at generation time. Particle Filtering (PF) has emerged as a strong ITS method for complex mathematical reasoning tasks, but it is vulnerable when guided by process reward models, which often assign overconfident scores early in the reasoning process. This causes PF to suffer from premature exploitation: it myopically commits to locally promising trajectories, prunes potentially correct hypotheses, and converges to suboptimal solutions. This […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2510.01349v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Symmetry-aware methods for machine learning, such as data augmentation and equivariant architectures, encourage correct model behavior on all transformations (e.g. rotations or permutations) of the original dataset. These methods can improve generalization and sample efficiency, under the assumption that the transformed datapoints are highly probable, or “important”, under the test distribution. In this work, we develop a method for critically evaluating this assumption. In particular, we propose a metric to quantify the amount […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2507.12581v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: While average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) provide valuable population- and subgroup-level summaries, they fail to capture uncertainty at the individual level. For high-stakes decision-making, individual treatment effect (ITE) estimates must be accompanied by valid prediction intervals that reflect heterogeneity and unit-specific uncertainty. However, the fundamental unidentifiability of ITEs limits the ability to derive precise and reliable individual-level uncertainty estimates. To address this challenge, we investigate the role of […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2504.21688v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Racial disparities in healthcare expenditures are well-documented, yet the underlying drivers remain complex. This study develops a framework to decompose such disparities through shifts in the distributions of mediating variables, rather than treating race itself as a manipulable exposure. We define disparities as differences in covariate-adjusted outcome distributions across racial groups, and decompose the total disparity into a component attributable to differences in mediator distributions, and a residual component that remains after equalizing […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2410.06326v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are widely used to recover the conditional independence structure among random variables. Recent work has sought to incorporate auxiliary covariates to improve estimation, particularly in applications such as co-expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) studies, where both gene expression levels and their conditional dependence structure may be influenced by genetic variants. Existing approaches to covariate-adjusted GGMs either restrict covariate effects to the mean structure or lead to nonconvex formulations when […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2409.14590v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The field of “explainable artificial intelligence” (XAI) seemingly addresses the desire that decisions of machine learning systems should be human-understandable. However, in its current state, XAI itself needs scrutiny. Popular methods cannot reliably answer relevant questions about ML models, their training data, or test inputs, because they systematically attribute importance to input features that are independent of the prediction target. This limits the utility of XAI for diagnosing and correcting data and models, […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2307.07753v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In this work, we propose a novel prior learning method for advancing generalization and uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks. The key idea is to exploit scalable and structured posteriors of neural networks as informative priors with generalization guarantees. Our learned priors provide expressive probabilistic representations at large scale, like Bayesian counterparts of pre-trained models on ImageNet, and further produce non-vacuous generalization bounds. We also extend this idea to a continual learning framework, […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2206.05829v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study the problem of learning multivariate dependencies in nonparametric and high-dimensional settings. This includes but is not limited to graphical models. Our approach effectively combines several features that are missing from previous work on this problem: We show how the entire dependence structure can be learned nonparametrically while simultaneously evading the curse of dimensionality and relaxing common assumptions such as faithfulness. To this end, we introduce and study the neighbourhood lattice decomposition […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2106.00839v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: When AI systems make errors in high-stakes domains like medical diagnosis or autonomous vehicles, a single algorithmic flaw across varying operational contexts can generate highly heterogeneous losses that challenge traditional insurance assumptions. Algorithmic insurance constitutes a novel form of financial coverage for AI-induced damages, representing an emerging market that addresses algorithm-driven liability. However, insurers currently struggle to price these risks, while AI developers lack rigorous frameworks connecting system design with financial liability exposure. […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2602.08927v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study the problem of online monotone density estimation, where density estimators must be constructed in a predictable manner from sequentially observed data. We propose two online estimators: an online analogue of the classical Grenander estimator, and an expert aggregation estimator inspired by exponential weighting methods from the online learning literature. In the well-specified stochastic setting, where the underlying density is monotone, we show that the expected cumulative log-likelihood gap between the online […]

Ver mais