February 2026

arXiv:2602.21031v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the use of exchangeable multi-task Gaussian processes (GPs) for causal inference in panel data, applying the framework to two settings: one with a single treated unit subject to a once-and-for-all treatment and another with multiple treated units and staggered treatment adoption. Our approach models the joint evolution of outcomes for treated and control units through a GP prior that ensures exchangeability across units while allowing for flexible nonlinear trends over time. […]

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arXiv:2602.20875v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce a new method for online parameter estimation in stochastic interacting particle systems, based on continuous observation of a small number of particles from the system. Our method recursively updates the model parameters using a stochastic approximation of the gradient of the asymptotic log likelihood, which is computed using the continuous stream of observations. Under suitable assumptions, we rigorously establish convergence of our method to the stationary points of the asymptotic log-likelihood […]

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arXiv:2602.20856v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper develops a unified framework that links firm-level predictive signals, cross-asset spillovers, and the stochastic discount factor (SDF). Signals and spillovers are jointly estimated by maximizing the Sharpe ratio, yielding an interpretable SDF that both ranks characteristic relevance and uncovers the direction of predictive influence across assets. Out-of-sample, the SDF consistently outperforms self-predictive and expected-return benchmarks across investment universes and market states. The inferred information network highlights large, low-turnover firms as net […]

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arXiv:2602.20844v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Stochastic network models play a central role across a wide range of scientific disciplines, and questions of statistical inference arise naturally in this context. In this paper we investigate goodness-of-fit and two-sample testing procedures for statistical networks based on the principle of maximum entropy (MaxEnt). Our approach formulates a constrained entropy-maximization problem on the space of networks, subject to prescribed structural constraints. The resulting test statistics are defined through the Lagrange multipliers associated […]

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arXiv:2602.20651v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In modern applications such as ECG monitoring, neuroimaging, wearable sensing, and industrial equipment diagnostics, complex and continuously structured data are ubiquitous, presenting both challenges and opportunities for functional data analysis. However, existing methods face a critical trade-off: conventional functional models are limited by linearity, whereas deep learning approaches lack interpretable region selection for sparse effects. To bridge these gaps, we propose a sparse Bayesian functional deep neural network (sBayFDNN). It learns adaptive functional […]

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arXiv:2602.20646v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for composite optimization problems with $N$ sequential operators subject to perturbations in both the forward and backward passes. Unlike classical analyses that treat gradient noise as additive and localized, perturbations to intermediate outputs and gradients cascade through the computational graph, compounding geometrically with the number of operators. We present the first comprehensive theoretical analysis of this setting. Specifically, we characterize how forward and backward perturbations propagate and […]

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arXiv:2602.20578v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study online maximization of non-monotone Diminishing-Return(DR)-submodular functions over down-closed convex sets, a regime where existing projection-free online methods suffer from suboptimal regret and limited feedback guarantees. Our main contribution is a new structural result showing that this class is $1/e$-linearizable under carefully designed exponential reparametrization, scaling parameter, and surrogate potential, enabling a reduction to online linear optimization. As a result, we obtain $O(T^{1/2})$ static regret with a single gradient query per round […]

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arXiv:2602.20404v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs) with perfect state observability, each trajectory provides active samples from the transition distributions conditioned on state-action pairs. Consequently, accurate model estimation depends on how the exploration policy allocates visitation frequencies in accordance with the intrinsic complexity of each transition distribution. Building on recent work on coverage-based exploration, we introduce a parameterized family of decomposable and concave objective functions $U_kappa$ that explicitly incorporate both intrinsic estimation complexity and […]

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arXiv:2602.20400v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: To steer language models towards truthful outputs on tasks which are beyond human capability, previous work has suggested training models on easy tasks to steer them on harder ones (easy-to-hard generalization), or using unsupervised training algorithms to steer models with no external labels at all (unsupervised elicitation). Although techniques from both paradigms have been shown to improve model accuracy on a wide variety of tasks, we argue that the datasets used for these […]

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arXiv:2602.20399v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural simulators promise efficient surrogates for physics simulation, but scaling them is bottlenecked by the prohibitive cost of generating high-fidelity training data. Pre-training on abundant off-the-shelf geometries offers a natural alternative, yet faces a fundamental gap: supervision on static geometry alone ignores dynamics and can lead to negative transfer on physics tasks. We present GeoPT, a unified pre-trained model for general physics simulation based on lifted geometric pre-training. The core idea is to […]

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