February 2026

arXiv:2602.07915v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal discovery from time series is a fundamental task in machine learning. However, its widespread adoption is hindered by a reliance on untestable causal assumptions and by the lack of robustness-oriented evaluation in existing benchmarks. To address these challenges, we propose CausalCompass, a flexible and extensible benchmark suite designed to assess the robustness of time-series causal discovery (TSCD) methods under violations of modeling assumptions. To demonstrate the practical utility of CausalCompass, we conduct […]

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arXiv:2602.07667v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Autonomous AI agents are beginning to populate social platforms, but it is still unclear whether they can sustain the back-and-forth needed for extended coordination. We study Moltbook, an AI-agent social network, using a first-week snapshot and introduce interaction half-life: how quickly a comment’s chance of receiving a direct reply fades as the comment ages. Across tens of thousands of commented threads, Moltbook discussions are dominated by first-layer reactions rather than extended chains. Most […]

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arXiv:2602.07613v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Balancing covariates is critical for credible and efficient randomized experiments. Rerandomization addresses this by repeatedly generating treatment assignments until covariate balance meets a prespecified threshold. By shrinking this threshold, it can achieve arbitrarily strong balance, with established results guaranteeing optimal estimation and valid inference in both finite-sample and asymptotic settings across diverse complex experimental settings. Despite its rigorous theoretical foundations, practical use is limited by the extreme inefficiency of rejection sampling, which becomes […]

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arXiv:2602.07593v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modern benchmarks such as HELM MMLU account for multiple metrics like accuracy, robustness and efficiency. When trying to turn these metrics into a single ranking, natural aggregation procedures can become incoherent or unstable to changes in the model set. We formalize this aggregation as a social choice problem where each metric induces a preference ranking over models on each dataset, and a benchmark operator aggregates these votes across metrics. While prior work has […]

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arXiv:2602.07562v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Match-and-copy is a core retrieval primitive used at inference time by large language models to retrieve a matching token from the context then copy its successor. Yet, understanding how this behavior emerges on natural data is challenging because retrieval and memorization are entangled. To disentangle the two, we introduce Gaussian Match-and-Copy (GMC), a minimalist benchmark that isolates long-range retrieval through pure second-order correlation signals. Numerical investigations show that this task retains key qualitative […]

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arXiv:2602.07477v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Choosing relevant predictors is central to the analysis of biomedical time-to-event data. Classical frequentist inference, however, presumes that the set of covariates is fixed in advance and does not account for data-driven variable selection. As a consequence, naive post-selection inference may be biased and misleading. In right-censored survival settings, these issues may be further exacerbated by the additional uncertainty induced by censoring. We investigate several inference procedures applied after variable selection for the […]

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arXiv:2602.07472v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: When multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms allocate pulls among competing arms, the resulting allocation can exhibit huge variation. This is particularly harmful in modern applications such as learning-enhanced platform operations and post-bandit statistical inference. Thus motivated, we introduce a new performance metric of MAB algorithms termed allocation variability, which is the largest (over arms) standard deviation of an arm’s number of pulls. We establish a fundamental trade-off between allocation variability and regret, the canonical […]

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arXiv:2602.07453v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Decision tree ensembles are widely used in critical domains, making robustness and sensitivity analysis essential to their trustworthiness. We study the feature sensitivity problem, which asks whether an ensemble is sensitive to a specified subset of features — such as protected attributes — whose manipulation can alter model predictions. Existing approaches often yield examples of sensitivity that lie far from the training distribution, limiting their interpretability and practical value. We propose a data-aware […]

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arXiv:2602.07378v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The dynamics of gradient-based training in neural networks often exhibit nontrivial structures; hence, understanding them remains a central challenge in theoretical machine learning. In particular, a concept of feature unlearning, in which a neural network progressively loses previously learned features over long training, has gained attention. In this study, we consider the infinite-width limit of a two-layer neural network updated with a large-batch stochastic gradient, then derive differential equations with different time scales, […]

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arXiv:2602.07370v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We give new differentially private algorithms for the classic problems of learning decision lists and large-margin halfspaces in the PAC and online models. In the PAC model, we give a computationally efficient algorithm for learning decision lists with minimal sample overhead over the best non-private algorithms. In the online model, we give a private analog of the influential Winnow algorithm for learning halfspaces with mistake bound polylogarithmic in the dimension and inverse polynomial […]

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