Online Selective Conformal Prediction with Asymmetric Rules: A Permutation Test Approach
arXiv:2602.10018v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Selective conformal prediction aims to construct prediction sets with valid coverage for a test unit conditional on it being selected by a data-driven mechanism. While existing methods in the offline setting handle any selection mechanism that is permutation invariant to the labeled data, their extension to the online setting — where data arrives sequentially and later decisions depend on earlier ones — is challenged by the fact that the selection mechanism is naturally […]