February 2026

arXiv:2602.10182v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probabilistic forecasting is increasingly critical across high-stakes domains, from finance and epidemiology to climate science. However, current evaluation frameworks lack a consensus metric and suffer from two critical flaws: they often assume independence across time steps or variables, and they demonstrably lack sensitivity to tail events, the very occurrences that are most pivotal in real-world decision-making. To address these limitations, we propose two kernel-based metrics: the signature maximum mean discrepancy (Sig-MMD) and our […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2602.11059v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of inversion in cases where (1) the observation system is modeled by a linear transformation and additive noise, (2) the problem is ill-posed and regularization is introduced in a Bayesian framework by an a prior density, and (3) the latter is modeled by a diffusion process adjusted on an available large set of examples. In this context, it is known that the issue of posterior sampling is a […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2602.10949v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The development of effective initialization methods requires an understanding of random neural networks. In this work, a rigorous probabilistic analysis of deep unbiased Leaky ReLU networks is provided. We prove a Law of Large Numbers and a Central Limit Theorem for the logarithm of the norm of network activations, establishing that, as the number of layers increases, their growth is governed by a parameter called the Lyapunov exponent. This parameter characterizes a sharp […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2602.10867v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Why depth yields a genuine computational advantage over shallow methods remains a central open question in learning theory. We study this question in a controlled high-dimensional Gaussian setting, focusing on compositional target functions. We analyze their learnability using an explicit three-layer fitting model trained via layer-wise spectral estimators. Although the target is globally a high-degree polynomial, its compositional structure allows learning to proceed in stages: an intermediate representation reveals structure that is inaccessible […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2602.10691v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the slice-matching scheme, an efficient iterative method for distribution matching based on sliced optimal transport. We investigate convergence to the target distribution and derive quantitative non-asymptotic rates. To this end, we establish __ojasiewicz-type inequalities for the Sliced-Wasserstein objective. A key challenge is to control along the trajectory the constants in these inequalities. We show that this becomes tractable for Gaussian distributions. Specifically, eigenvalues are controlled when matching along random orthonormal bases […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2602.10680v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many real-world datasets contain hidden structure that cannot be detected by simple linear correlations between input features. For example, latent factors may influence the data in a coordinated way, even though their effect is invisible to covariance-based methods such as PCA. In practice, nonlinear neural networks often succeed in extracting such hidden structure in unsupervised and self-supervised learning. However, constructing a minimal high-dimensional model where this advantage can be rigorously analyzed has remained […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2602.10640v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this article we develop a new method for summarizing a ranking distribution, textit{i.e.} a probability distribution on the symmetric group $mathfrak{S}_n$, beyond the classical theory of consensus and Kemeny medians. Based on the notion of textit{local ranking median}, we introduce the concept of textit{consensus ranking distribution} ($crd$), a sparse mixture model of Dirac masses on $mathfrak{S}_n$, in order to approximate a ranking distribution with small distortion from a mass transportation perspective. We […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2602.10613v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Highly Adaptive Lasso (HAL) is a nonparametric regression method that achieves almost dimension-free convergence rates under minimal smoothness assumptions, but its implementation can be computationally prohibitive in high dimensions due to the large basis matrix it requires. The Highly Adaptive Ridge (HAR) has been proposed as a scalable alternative. Building on both procedures, we introduce the Principal Component based Highly Adaptive Lasso (PCHAL) and Principal Component based Highly Adaptive Ridge (PCHAR). These […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2602.10608v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Policy inference plays an essential role in the contextual bandit problem. In this paper, we use empirical likelihood to develop a Bayesian inference method for the joint analysis of multiple contextual bandit policies in finite sample regimes. The proposed inference method is robust to small sample sizes and is able to provide accurate uncertainty measurements for policy value evaluation. In addition, it allows for flexible inferences on policy comparison with full uncertainty quantification. […]

Ver mais

arXiv:2602.10587v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this work, we propose a novel deep bootstrap framework for nonparametric regression based on conditional diffusion models. Specifically, we construct a conditional diffusion model to learn the distribution of the response variable given the covariates. This model is then used to generate bootstrap samples by pairing the original covariates with newly synthesized responses. We reformulate nonparametric regression as conditional sample mean estimation, which is implemented directly via the learned conditional diffusion model. […]

Ver mais