Credal Concept Bottleneck Models: Structural Separation of Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty
arXiv:2602.11219v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decomposing predictive uncertainty into epistemic (model ignorance) and aleatoric (data ambiguity) components is central to reliable decision making, yet most methods estimate both from the same predictive distribution. Recent empirical and theoretical results show these estimates are typically strongly correlated, so changes in predictive spread simultaneously affect both components and blur their semantics. We propose a credal-set formulation in which uncertainty is represented as a set of predictive distributions, so that epistemic and […]