February 2026

arXiv:2602.09394v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Manufacturing lines, service journeys, supply chains, and AI reasoning chains share a common challenge: attributing a terminal outcome to the intermediate stage that caused it. We establish an information-theoretic barrier to this credit assignment problem: the signal connecting early steps to final outcomes decays exponentially with depth, creating a critical horizon beyond which reliable learning from endpoint data alone requires exponentially many samples. We prove four results. First, a Signal Decay Bound: sample […]

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arXiv:2601.05151v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Feature selection (FS) is essential for biomarker discovery and clinical predictive modeling. Over the past decades, methodological literature on FS has become rich and mature, offering a wide spectrum of algorithmic approaches. However, much of this methodological progress has not fully translated into applied biomedical research. Moreover, challenges inherent in biomedical data, such as high-dimensional feature space, low sample size, multicollinearity, and missing values, make FS non-trivial. To help bridge this gap between […]

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arXiv:2502.15110v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Bayesian phylogenetics is vital for understanding evolutionary dynamics, and requires accurate and efficient approximation of posterior distributions over trees. In this work, we develop a variational Bayesian approach for ultrametric phylogenetic trees. We present a novel variational family based on coalescent times of a single-linkage clustering and derive a closed-form density for the resulting distribution over trees. Unlike existing methods for ultrametric trees, our method performs inference over all of tree space, it […]

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arXiv:2409.16407v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Reweighting a distribution to minimize a distance to a target distribution is a powerful and flexible strategy for estimating a wide range of causal effects, but can be challenging in practice because optimal weights typically depend on knowledge of the underlying data generating process. In this paper, we focus on design-based weights, which do not incorporate outcome information; prominent examples include prospective cohort studies, survey weighting, and the weighting portion of augmented weighting […]

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arXiv:2312.17111v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Contemporary applications, such as recommendation systems and mobile health monitoring, require real-time processing and analysis of sequentially arriving high-dimensional tensor data. Traditional offline learning, involving the storage and utilization of all data in each computational iteration, becomes impractical for these tasks. Furthermore, existing low-rank tensor methods lack the capability for online statistical inference, which is essential for real-time predictions and informed decision-making. This paper addresses these challenges by introducing a novel online inference […]

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arXiv:2108.02431v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Linear layouts are a graph visualization method that can be used to capture an entry pattern in an adjacency matrix of a given graph. By reordering the node indices of the original adjacency matrix, linear layouts provide knowledge of latent graph structures. Conventional linear layout methods commonly aim to find an optimal reordering solution based on predefined features of a given matrix and loss function. However, prior knowledge of the appropriate features to […]

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arXiv:2602.13184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Unbinned likelihood fits aim at maximizing the information one can extract from experimental data, yet their application in realistic statistical analyses is often hindered by the computational cost of profiling systematic uncertainties. Additionally, current machine learning-based inference methods are typically limited to estimating scalar parameters in a multidimensional space rather than full differential distributions. We propose a general framework for Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) that efficiently profiles nuisance parameters while measuring multivariate Distributions of […]

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arXiv:2602.13169v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Finite-state mean-field games (MFGs) arise as limits of large interacting particle systems and are governed by an MFG system, a coupled forward-backward differential equation consisting of a forward Kolmogorov-Fokker-Planck (KFP) equation describing the population distribution and a backward Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation defining the value function. Solving MFG systems efficiently is challenging, with the structure of each system depending on an initial distribution of players and the terminal cost of the game. We propose […]

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arXiv:2602.13155v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: There has been a growing interest in using neural networks, especially message-passing neural networks (MPNNs), to solve hard combinatorial optimization problems heuristically. However, existing learning-based approaches for hard combinatorial optimization tasks often rely on supervised training data, reinforcement learning, or gradient estimators, leading to significant computational overhead, unstable training, or a lack of provable performance guarantees. In contrast, classical approximation algorithms offer such performance guarantees under worst-case inputs but are non-differentiable and unable […]

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arXiv:2602.13061v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The ability of Flow Matching (FM) to model complex conditional distributions has established it as the state-of-the-art for prediction tasks (e.g., robotics, weather forecasting). However, deployment in safety-critical settings is hindered by a critical extrapolation hazard: driven by smoothness biases, flow models yield plausible outputs even for off-manifold conditions, resulting in silent failures indistinguishable from valid predictions. In this work, we introduce Diverging Flows, a novel approach that enables a single model to […]

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