February 2026

arXiv:2602.13061v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The ability of Flow Matching (FM) to model complex conditional distributions has established it as the state-of-the-art for prediction tasks (e.g., robotics, weather forecasting). However, deployment in safety-critical settings is hindered by a critical extrapolation hazard: driven by smoothness biases, flow models yield plausible outputs even for off-manifold conditions, resulting in silent failures indistinguishable from valid predictions. In this work, we introduce Diverging Flows, a novel approach that enables a single model to […]

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arXiv:2602.13004v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Granger Causality (GC) provides a rigorous framework for learning causal structures from time-series data. Recent federated variants of GC have targeted distributed infrastructure applications (e.g., smart grids) with distributed clients that generate high-dimensional data bound by data-sovereignty constraints. However, Federated GC algorithms only yield deterministic point estimates of causality and neglect uncertainty. This paper establishes the first methodology for rigorously quantifying uncertainty and its propagation within federated GC frameworks. We systematically classify sources […]

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arXiv:2602.12643v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present Unified Latent Dynamics (ULD), a novel reinforcement learning algorithm that unifies the efficiency of model-free methods with the representational strengths of model-based approaches, without incurring planning overhead. By embedding state-action pairs into a latent space in which the true value function is approximately linear, our method supports a single set of hyperparameters across diverse domains — from continuous control with low-dimensional and pixel inputs to high-dimensional Atari games. We prove that, […]

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arXiv:2602.12604v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Differential Privacy (DP) provides a rigorous framework for deriving privacy-preserving estimators by injecting calibrated noise to mask individual contributions while preserving population-level insights. Its central challenge lies in the privacy-utility trade-off: calibrating noise levels to ensure robust protection without compromising statistical performance. Standard DP methods struggle with a particular class of two-stage problems prevalent in individualized treatment rules (ITRs) and causal inference. In these settings, data-dependent weights are first computed to satisfy distributional […]

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arXiv:2602.12601v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Self-attention is often viewed as probabilistic query-key lookup, motivating designs that preserve normalized attention scores and fixed positional semantics. We advocate a simpler and more unified perspective: an autoregressive attention head can be viewed as a dynamic two-layer MLP whose weights are instantiated from the context history. From this view, attention scores form an ever-growing hidden representation, and standard MLP activations such as ReLU or GLU naturally implement input-conditioned selection over a context-dependent […]

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arXiv:2602.12490v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) quantifies systemic financial risk by measuring the loss quantile of one asset, conditional on another asset experiencing distress. We develop a Transformer-based methodology that integrates financial news articles directly with market data to improve CoVaR estimates. Unlike approaches that use predefined sentiment scores, our method incorporates raw text embeddings generated by a large language model (LLM). We prove explicit error bounds for our Transformer CoVaR estimator, showing that accurate CoVaR […]

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arXiv:2602.12449v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Learning Gibbs distributions using only sufficient statistics has long been recognized as a computationally hard problem. On the other hand, computationally efficient algorithms for learning Gibbs distributions rely on access to full sample configurations generated from the model. For many systems of interest that arise in physical contexts, expecting a full sample to be observed is not practical, and hence it is important to look for computationally efficient methods that solve the learning […]

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arXiv:2602.13112v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vanilla gradient methods are often highly sensitive to the choice of stepsize, which typically requires manual tuning. Adaptive methods alleviate this issue and have therefore become widely used. Among them, AdaGrad has been particularly influential. In this paper, we propose an AdaGrad-style adaptive method in which the adaptation is driven by the cumulative squared norms of successive gradient differences rather than gradient norms themselves. The key idea is that when gradients vary little […]

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arXiv:2602.12932v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We propose a training-free conditional sampling method for flow matching models based on importance sampling. Because a na”ive application of importance sampling suffers from weight degeneracy in high-dimensional settings, we modify and incorporate a resampling technique in sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) during intermediate stages of the generation process. To encourage generated samples to diverge along distinct trajectories, we derive a stochastic flow with adjustable noise strength to replace the deterministic flow at the […]

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arXiv:2602.12923v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Mode collapse, the failure to capture one or more modes when targetting a multimodal distribution, is a central challenge in modern variational inference. In this work, we provide a mathematical analysis of annealing based strategies for mitigating mode collapse in a tractable setting: learning a Gaussian mixture, where mode collapse is known to arise. Leveraging a low dimensional summary statistics description, we precisely characterize the interplay between the initial temperature and the annealing […]

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