February 2026

arXiv:2602.13871v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We formulate Ensemble-Conditional Gaussian Processes (Ens-CGP), a finite-dimensional synthesis that centers ensemble-based inference on the conditional Gaussian law. Conditional Gaussian processes (CGP) arise directly from Gaussian processes under conditioning and, in linear-Gaussian settings, define the full posterior distribution for a Gaussian prior and linear observations. Classical Kalman filtering is a recursive algorithm that computes this same conditional law under dynamical assumptions; the conditional Gaussian law itself is therefore the underlying representational object, while […]

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arXiv:2602.13848v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a sequential test for detecting arbitrary distribution shifts that allows conformal test martingales (CTMs) to work under a fixed, reference-conditional setting. Existing CTM detectors construct test martingales by continually growing a reference set with each incoming sample, using it to assess how atypical the new sample is relative to past observations. While this design yields anytime-valid type-I error control, it suffers from test-time contamination: after a change, post-shift observations enter the […]

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arXiv:2602.13804v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models spend most of their inference cost on attention over long contexts, yet empirical behavior suggests that only a small subset of tokens meaningfully contributes to each query. We formalize this phenomenon by modeling attention as a projection onto the convex hull of key vectors and analyzing its entropic (softmax-like) relaxation. Our main theoretical contribution is a face-stability theorem showing that, under a strict complementarity margin (a support gap (Delta) certified […]

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arXiv:2602.13485v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Networks of modern industrial systems are increasingly monitored by distributed sensors, where each system comprises multiple subsystems generating high dimensional time series data. These subsystems are often interdependent, making it important to understand how temporal patterns at one subsystem relate to others. This is challenging in decentralized settings where raw measurements cannot be shared and client observations are heterogeneous. In practical deployments each subsystem (client) operates a fixed proprietary model that cannot be […]

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arXiv:2602.13475v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The hazard ratio from the Cox proportional hazards model is a ubiquitous summary of treatment effect. However, when hazards are non-proportional, the hazard ratio can lose a stable causal interpretation and become study-dependent because it effectively averages time-varying effects with weights determined by follow-up and censoring. We consider the average hazard (AH) as an alternative causal estimand: a population-level person-time event rate that remains well-defined and interpretable without assuming proportional hazards. Although AH […]

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arXiv:2602.13442v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Quantifying the complexity of feed-forward neural networks (FFNNs) remains challenging due to their nonlinear, hierarchical structure and numerous parameters. We apply generalized degrees of freedom (GDF) to measure model complexity in FFNNs with binary outcomes, adapting the algorithm for discrete responses. We compare GDF with both the effective number of parameters derived via log-likelihood cross-validation and the null degrees of freedom of Landsittel et al. Through simulation studies and a real data analysis, […]

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arXiv:2602.13413v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We develop a worst-case complexity theory for stochastically preconditioned stochastic gradient descent (SPSGD) and its accelerated variants under heavy-tailed noise, a setting that encompasses widely used adaptive methods such as Adam, RMSProp, and Shampoo. We assume the stochastic gradient noise has a finite $p$-th moment for some $p in (1,2]$, and measure convergence after $T$ iterations. While clipping and normalization are parallel tools for stabilizing training of SGD under heavy-tailed noise, there is […]

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arXiv:2602.14862v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temperature scaling is a simple method that allows to control the uncertainty of probabilistic models. It is mostly used in two contexts: improving the calibration of classifiers and tuning the stochasticity of large language models (LLMs). In both cases, temperature scaling is the most popular method for the job. Despite its popularity, a rigorous theoretical analysis of the properties of temperature scaling has remained elusive. We investigate here some of these properties. For […]

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arXiv:2602.14642v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Inverse problems and inverse design in multiphase media, i.e., recovering or engineering microstructures to achieve target macroscopic responses, require operating on discrete-valued material fields, rendering the problem non-differentiable and incompatible with gradient-based methods. Existing approaches either relax to continuous approximations, compromising physical fidelity, or employ separate heavyweight models for forward and inverse tasks. We propose GenPANIS, a unified generative framework that preserves exact discrete microstructures while enabling gradient-based inference through continuous latent embeddings. […]

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arXiv:2602.14520v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Posterior inference from pulsar observations in the form of light curves is commonly performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, which are accurate but computationally expensive. We introduce a framework that accelerates posterior inference while maintaining accuracy by combining learned latent representations with local simulator-guided optimization. A masked U-Net is first pretrained to reconstruct complete light curves from partial observations and to produce informative latent embeddings. Given a query light curve, we identify […]

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