Modeling Cascaded Delay Feedback for Online Net Conversion Rate Prediction: Benchmark, Insights and Solutions
arXiv:2601.19965v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In industrial recommender systems, conversion rate (CVR) is widely used for traffic allocation, but it fails to fully reflect recommendation effectiveness because it ignores refund behavior. To better capture true user satisfaction and business value, net conversion rate (NetCVR), defined as the probability that a clicked item is purchased and not refunded, has been proposed.Unlike CVR, NetCVR prediction involves a more complex multi-stage cascaded delayed feedback process. The two cascaded delays from click […]