January 2026

arXiv:2601.19944v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study model-agnostic post-hoc calibration methods intended to improve probabilistic predictions in supervised binary classification on real i.i.d. tabular data, with particular emphasis on conformal and Venn-based approaches that provide distribution-free validity guarantees under exchangeability. We benchmark 21 widely used classifiers, including linear models, SVMs, tree ensembles (CatBoost, XGBoost, LightGBM), and modern tabular neural and foundation models, on binary tasks from the TabArena-v0.1 suite using randomized, stratified five-fold cross-validation with a held-out test […]

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arXiv:2601.20830v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modern industrial and service processes generate high-dimensional, non-Gaussian, and contamination-prone data that challenge the foundational assumptions of classical Statistical Process Control (SPC). Heavy tails, multimodality, nonlinear dependencies, and sparse special-cause observations can distort baseline estimation, mask true anomalies, and prevent reliable identification of an in-control (IC) reference set. To address these challenges, we introduce VSCOUT, a distribution-free framework designed specifically for retrospective (Phase I) monitoring in high-dimensional settings. VSCOUT combines an Automatic Relevance […]

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arXiv:2601.20819v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine learning predictions are increasingly used to supplement incomplete or costly-to-measure outcomes in fields such as biomedical research, environmental science, and social science. However, treating predictions as ground truth introduces bias while ignoring them wastes valuable information. Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI) offers a principled framework that leverages predictions from large unlabeled datasets to improve statistical efficiency while maintaining valid inference through explicit bias correction using a smaller labeled subset. Despite its potential, the growing […]

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arXiv:2601.20533v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Survival analysis has become a standard approach for modelling time to default by time-varying covariates in credit risk. Unlike most existing methods that implicitly assume a stationary data-generating process, in practise, mortgage portfolios are exposed to various forms of data drift caused by changing borrower behaviour, macroeconomic conditions, policy regimes and so on. This study investigates the impact of data drift on survival-based credit risk models and proposes a dynamic joint modelling framework […]

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arXiv:2601.20496v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Generating dense physical fields from sparse measurements is a fundamental question in sampling, signal processing, and many other applications. State-of-the-art methods either use spatial statistics or rely on examples of dense fields in the training phase, which often are not available, and thus rely on synthetic data. Here, we present a reconstruction method that generates dense fields from sparse measurements, without assuming availability of the spatial statistics, nor of examples of the dense […]

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arXiv:2601.20047v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We prove an exponential separation in sample complexity between Euclidean and hyperbolic representations for learning on hierarchical data under standard Lipschitz regularization. For depth-$R$ hierarchies with branching factor $m$, we first establish a geometric obstruction for Euclidean space: any bounded-radius embedding forces volumetric collapse, mapping exponentially many tree-distant points to nearby locations. This necessitates Lipschitz constants scaling as $exp(Omega(R))$ to realize even simple hierarchical targets, yielding exponential sample complexity under capacity control. We […]

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arXiv:2601.19958v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deep neural networks (DNNs) achieve remarkable performance on a wide range of tasks, yet their mathematical analysis remains fragmented: stability and generalization are typically studied in disparate frameworks and on a case-by-case basis. Architecturally, DNNs rely on the recursive application of parametrized functions, a mechanism that can be unstable and difficult to train, making stability a primary concern. Even when training succeeds, there are few rigorous results on how well such models generalize […]

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arXiv:2601.20084v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Interpretability in black-box dense retrievers remains a central challenge in Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). Understanding how queries and documents semantically interact is critical for diagnosing retrieval behavior and improving model design. However, existing dense retrievers rely on static embeddings for both queries and documents, which obscures this bidirectional relationship. Post-hoc approaches such as re-rankers are computationally expensive, add inference latency, and still fail to reveal the underlying semantic alignment. To address these limitations, we […]

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arXiv:2601.20083v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present LLaTTE (LLM-Style Latent Transformers for Temporal Events), a scalable transformer architecture for production ads recommendation. Through systematic experiments, we demonstrate that sequence modeling in recommendation systems follows predictable power-law scaling similar to LLMs. Crucially, we find that semantic features bend the scaling curve: they are a prerequisite for scaling, enabling the model to effectively utilize the capacity of deeper and longer architectures. To realize the benefits of continued scaling under strict […]

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arXiv:2601.20080v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Finding a particular object in a display is important for viewers in many visualizations, for example, when reacting to brushing or to a highlighted object. This can be enabled by making the target object different in one of the visual variables that determine the object’s appearance; for example, by changing its color or size. Certain interpretations of the visual search literature have promoted the view that using visual variables such as hue-often labeled […]

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